Iran and Israel are sworn foes that dates back to the rise to power of the Islamist regime of Ayatollah Khomeni, with the latest climax which has seen the explosion of missile shells in both Tehran and Tel aviv, the question beckons if the end of the Islamic revolution is on the horizon, Gabriel Atumeyi writes
The protracted antagonism between Israel and Iran is one of the most storied events in the contemporary international system that emerged from the dark days of the cold war, and possesses the semblance of the intense polarization that characterized that era.
For 46 years the Ayatollah and leaders of Iran have built their credibility and political legitimacy on their fierce opposition to the existence of the state of Israel purportedly as custodians of the Palestinian cause. It is amid this controversy that it has launched an ambitious nuclear programme that has sent fear across the region, leading to mutual suspicion and provoking an arm race.
While Iran has invested heavily in building its military arsenal in preparation for a potential conflict with Israel, when direct confrontation finally came, the Islamic Republic – despite years of cultivating a fearsome reputation through its proxy ‘Axis of Resistance’ network – found itself outmatched and outgunned.
Iran through the quad force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council (IRGC) has been a major player in the region whose network of influences extends from Lebanon to Iraq to Syria, Yemen and even North Africa, threatening American interests and those of other regional rivals. For a while it seemed invincible because of the successes of Hezbollah in Lebanon, of Iran affiliated groups in post 2003 Iraq and in Syria where its forces was instrumental in shoring up the regime of Bashar Al Assad when the Arab spring metamorphosed into the syrian civil war. But domestically Iran has been facing its own troubles, with crippling effects of western sanctions on its economy and growing public disaffection with the regimes priorities.
Series of popular protests seeking more freedoms were brutally suppressed badly damaging the image of the regime. Added to this, allies of the regime in Lebanon and Gaza were heavily bruised in the retaliation that followed the October 7th 2023 Hamas led attack on Israel which saw the death of over 1200 Israelis after a portion of the border with Gaza was breached.
Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies on the right saw opportunity in the tragedy and sent the army swarming across the border to exact retribution, leaving in their wake a growing toll of deaths including the elimination of Hamas military and political hierarchy and culminating in the interference of Hezbollah whose leadership was also to experience the blade edge of the Israeli war machine. The decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah facilitate the eventual overthrow of the Assad regime by Sunni led groups in Syria.
While the latest direct conflict with Iran came as a surprise to the world, it may be the calculated next phase in the Israeli strategic game plan to hold Iran to account for its role in the October 7th attack and perhaps deal with the Iranian threat once and for all as the opportunity presents itself, especially since Hamas, which the Israeli prime minister has sworn to annihilate seems unwilling to stay down, as can be seen in the Israeli army back and forth tactics in Gaza.
The Israeli political and intelligence leadership seems to have a policy of striking the head to disperse the flock as is discernible from the pattern of their operations in both Lebanon and Gaza. So since the Iranian regime is the source of their most fundamental threat, hence it should of necessity be their most fundamental target.
While there are mixed signals from both Washington and Tel aviv, with American Vice President, J. D Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, saying American intervention is not about regime change but bringing an end to the Iranian nuclear program, both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have called for regime change. Speaking in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu said, ” Given the opportunity, “80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out”, and the list of targets in Iran hit in the last few days appear to confirm that Israel may be pursuing a broader agenda than simply destroying Tehran’s nuclear programme, striking police headquarters, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intelligence directorate, and the state television broadcaster.
Some observers have accused Israel of seeking regime destruction as an end in its own right, with no interest in Iran’s future beyond weakening and destabilising a regional rival.
Options for the future
Iran is facing its most challenging moment since the founding of the Islamic Republic, fraught with uncertainties. Its leading military figures and scientists have been eliminated by the Isrealis, key military and nuclear facilities have also been destroyed with billions of dollars of hard investments going down the drain for a hard hit economy. The strikes has caused mixed reaction from the Iranian public, from galvanizing nationalist support for the regime to evoking the specter of possible breakdown of law and order which has led to a growing number of people fleeing the country.
Before now many in Iran have become disenchanted with the regime with increasing secularization, with the latest attacks and the ensuing impact on the economy and social welfare it is only a matter of time before the Iranian people begin to react to the realities of things. But changing the regime in Iran wouldn’t be an easy task. Iran is a big country with an heterogeneous population with minorities like the Azeris, Kurds, Lurs, Arabs and Baluchis, even in 1979, the fall of the shah triggered a period of competition in Iran between conservative Islamists, communists and different factions within both the Shia clergy and revolutionary cadres.
Currently, it has a sizeable number of hard-line Islamists and an intricate system of propaganda and administration through the IRGC, as millions of Iranians have transitioned through its compulsory military or paramilitary trainings, analysts have opined the extreme difficulty of any regime change in Iran especially because of the absence of an active and structured political opposition and the suddenness of the Israeli and American airstrikes. While there is the possibility of a coup de etat from within it would hardly be from a united military force, hence the prospect of implosion, and fragmentation in Iran an eerie reminder of the sequence of things with the American intervention in Iraq in 2003 and subsequently in Libya.
If the regime survives this cataclysmic military assault on the heart of its political and security establishment, it would definitely become more repressive in order to rebuild its political and ideological foundations. Meanwhile Iran’s close ally Russia has warned of dire consequences if there is regime change in Iran, because the collapse of the Iranian regime would be a great blow to its geopolitical interests and calculation and open the gates to further American consolidation in the region.
While there are people both internationally and domestically who wish to see the end of the Islamic Republic, it will not capitulate without an apocalyptic style struggle for survival as Iranian allied groups across the world will make their way to this sacred heartland of the global shite movement in a manner akin to the days of the Islamic state of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). To quote the Russian spokesman of Russian President Dimitry Peskov, “any attempt to take out Ali Khameni would open a Pandora box”.
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