By Eshiorameh Sebastian, Abuja
A prominent member of Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and social media commentator, Sunday Wale Adeniran, has mocked former Vice President Atiku Abubakar along with opposition leaders and analysts who suggested the 2027 general elections would pit the ruling party against ordinary Nigerians.
His remarks came after the APC secured a series of bye-election victories across several states over the weekend – including a symbolic win in former Vice-President Abubakar’s background in Adamawa State.
The ruling party captured key legislative seats in several states while making significant gains in traditional opposition strongholds.
The results has sparked celebratory declarations from APC figures, with party influencer Adeniran taunting critics who had predicted widespread rejection of the party in the 2027 polls.
Adeniran wrote: “Those who said the 2027 election will be between APC and Nigerians should be reminded that except the election is conducted in Cote d’Ivoire, APC will win the 2027 presidential election in grand style for God is our strength”.
The most symbolically significant victory came in Adamawa State, where the APC captured a state assembly seat in Ganye – the political backyard of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) 2023 presidential candidate. This marked a humiliating defeat for the main opposition party in its former stronghold.
Comprehensive Nationwide Dominance
The APC’s victory extended across different geopolitical zones, demonstrating the party’s growing nationwide appeal:
In the North-East, beyond the Adamawa victory, the party also won a Taraba State Assembly seat, further consolidating its presence in the traditionally competitive region.
The North-West saw particularly strong performances, with the APC winning a Jigawa House of Representatives seat, two Kaduna State Assembly seats, and a Kaduna federal constituency. Perhaps most significantly, the party made unexpected gains in southern Kaduna, a region that has historically resisted APC advances.
North-Central states delivered more wins, with the APC taking a Niger State Assembly seat and showing continued strength in Kogi, where it maintained its political dominance.
In the South-West, the party retained an Ogun State House of Representatives seat and won an Ekiti State Assembly seat, underscoring its firm grip on the region. The only setback came in Oyo, where the PDP managed to hold onto a federal constituency.
The South-South region witnessed one of the APC’s most impressive performances, with the party winning both a Senate seat and House of Representatives seat in Edo State, signaling a potential shift in the state’s political landscape ahead of governorship elections.
Even in the opposition stronghold of Kano State, the APC demonstrated resilience by winning one of two contested seats (a state assembly position), while the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) took the House of Representatives seat.
The only region where the APC failed to make significant inroads was the South-East, where the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) maintained its dominance by winning both a Senate seat and State Assembly seat in Anambra.
Implications for 2027 General Elections
Political analysts suggest these results have significant implications for Nigeria’s political trajectory. The APC’s ability to win in diverse regions – including traditional opposition strongholds – suggests the party’s grassroots machinery remains formidable.
The PDP, while managing to hold just one seat (in Oyo), appears to be struggling with internal cohesion and voter mobilization. The party’s poor showing in areas it once dominated has sparked concerns about its ability to mount a serious challenge in 2027.
Behind the APC’s Success
Several factors contributed to the APC’s strong performance: Strategic candidate selection. The party fielded popular local candidates in several constituencies, overcoming potential anti-incumbency sentiments.
Federal Advantage: As the ruling party, the APC benefited from its ability to showcase ongoing federal projects and initiatives during campaigns.
Opposition Fragmentation: In key states like Edo and Adamawa, divisions within opposition parties allowed the APC to capitalise on disunity.
Grassroots Mobilization: Improved party structures at the local level enabled effective voter turnout in crucial areas.
Defection Dynamics: The recent influx of former opposition figures into the APC appears to have paid dividends in several constituencies.
The Road to 2027
For the APC leadership, these results provide both confidence and strategic information. The victories in diverse locations will likely influence the party’s campaign focus and resource allocation for the next general elections.
Adeniran’s bold pronouncements reflect this growing confidence within the party.
As the dust settles on these bye-elections, Nigeria’s political landscape appears increasingly tilted in the APC’s favour. While opposition parties still have time to regroup before 2027, they now face the daunting task of reversing what looks like an accelerating consolidation of power by the ruling party across much of the nation.
Discussion about this post