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The death of President Muhammadu Buhari has created the most consequential power vacuum in Nigerian politics since the passing of Umaru Yar’Adua in 2010. Buhari was not just a political figure; he was a cultural icon whose appeal transcended policy and governance, rooted in anti-establishment fervour, ethnic solidarity, and an almost mythic reputation for Spartan integrity. His 12 million votes, a formidable electoral bloc, now lie scattered across Nigeria’s political landscape like unclaimed treasure.
This is not merely a succession battle; it is a struggle for the soul of the Arewa political identity. At least five formidable Northern figures- Kashim Shettima, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nasir El-Rufai, and Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, are positioning themselves as potential heirs. Yet, hovering above them is an unlikely claimant: Bola Tinubu, the Lagos-born political strategist who controls the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) machinery.
The 2027 election may ultimately hinge on whether Buhari’s followers see themselves as loyalists to a man or a movement. Will they rally behind a single Northern successor, or will their allegiances fracture along regional, ideological, and generational lines.
The Contenders: Who Can Claim Buhari’s Legacy?
Kashim Shettima: The Continuity Candidate
As the sitting Vice President, Shettima represents the establishment’s preferred successor. His political trajectory, from academia to the governorship of Borno State during Boko Haram’s most violent insurgency—mirrors Buhari’s narrative of a stern administrator inheriting chaos.
However, Shettima diverges from Buhari in one crucial aspect: governance style. Where Buhari governed through personal austerity and a distrust of technocrats, Shettima embraced modernization, pioneering biometric governance systems in Borno even amid the insurgency. His 2019 gamble to back Tinubu over Northern presidential aspirants demonstrated strategic foresight, but today, that same move alienates core Buharists who view Tinubu’s Lagos political machine with suspicion.
Shettima’s greatest asset—incumbency, is also his vulnerability. He must delicately balance rewarding Southern allies while avoiding the perception that he is auctioning Northern political capital.
Atiku Abubakar: The Perennial Challenger
The Wazirin Adamawa is no stranger to presidential contests. At 77, Atiku has been running for president since 1993, building an unrivaled patronage network across Northern Nigeria. His hybrid model of politics—combining traditional Durbar-era horse-trading with modern PR tactics—has kept him relevant for decades.
Yet, the 2023 election exposed cracks in his machine. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) collapsed in the Northwest, winning only Sokoto and Atiku’s home state of Adamawa. This suggests Buhari’s base never fully embraced him. More critically, Atiku’s old-school politics of “stomach infrastructure” struggles to inspire the millions of under-30 voters who adored Buhari’s Spartan image. But one must not over the appreciable and changing vote graph. In 2027, when Atiku contested against Buhari and Umar Ya’ adua, he had somewhere around patry 2.5 million votes, when Ya’adua had sometimes around 24 million votes and Buhari above 6 million votes. But by 2019, when he made a pack with Peter Obi, he saw his votes reach 11 million and in his most recent outing, he was close to 7 million. While there is great potential there are also great barriiers. Atiku’s path to inheriting Buhari’s votes depends on whether he can rebrand himself as a unifier and sacrificial leader rather than a transactional politician.
Rabiu Kwankwaso: The Populist Firebrand
Kwankwaso presents the most fascinating case study in this contest. His Kwankwasiyya movement—complete with red caps, slogans, and economic cooperatives—has evolved from a Kano-centric platform into a Northern proletariat revolution. In 2023, his New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) campaign revealed unexpected strength in Buhari’s heartland, securing 25% of Kano’s votes despite the APC’s federal might.
Kwankwaso’s appeal lies in his authentic connection with the talakawa (masses). Unlike Buhari’s accidental populism, Kwankwaso consciously models himself after Aminu Kano, the fiery socialist leader of the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU). His critiques of the “Kano aristocracy” resonate with disenchanted youths.
But his Achilles heel is temperament. His very public feud with protégé Abdullahi Ganduje cost him critical establishment support. To consolidate Buhari’s base, Kwankwaso must temper his combativeness and expand his appeal beyond Kano. The 2023 general electiin is Kwankwaso’s first contestation for the presidency, making impact in tthe Kano – Jigawa belt, putting his political brand in a good position to succeed to Buhari’s 12 million vote if he can consolidate his game. Some analysts even opine that by such act Kwankwaso has secured his political future, sensing the iimpending end of Muhammadu Buhari’s open participation in elective political life.
Nasir El-Rufai: The Disruptive Technocrat
El-Rufai is the wildcard in this race. As former governor of Kaduna, he built his brand on disruptive reforms, demolishing “illegal” structures in Abuja as FCT Minister, implementing aggressive privatization, and pushing controversial education reforms. He did the same in Kaduna State. So, far El-rufai has lost his political capital in Kaduna. His handling of insecurity in the state, especially in Southern Kaduna where he didn’t hide his resentment for them, will affect his yet to seen growing career.
His governance style was Buharism without the inertia: while Buhari hesitated on fuel subsidy removal, El-Rufai executed Nigeria’s most ambitious neoliberal agenda. This made him a darling of the urban elite but alienated rural voters—Buhari’s core base.
El-Rufai’s recent excommunication from the APC (his ministerial nomination was blocked) leaves him politically homeless but dangerous. His mastery of bureaucratic warfare means he could play kingmaker if not king.
Umaru Tanko Al-Makura: The Dark Horse
Al-Makura is the least visible but perhaps the purest ideological heir to Buhari. As the sole surviving Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) governor in 2011, he governed Nasarawa State with Buhari’s rural-centric, austerity-focused approach.
However, Al-Makura suffers from what Northern politicians call “gentleman syndrome”—his refusal to cultivate a cult of personality (like Kwankwaso) or engage in ruthless power plays (like El-Rufai) has kept him relevant but not dominant. His recent appointment as APC National Chairman suggests the party sees him as a stabilizer rather than a frontline contender.
The X-Factors: What Will Decide the Battle?
Beyond individual ambitions, three structural factors will shape the fate of Buhari’s 12 million votes:
The Clerical Factor
Northern Nigeria’s Islamic clerics—from the Sufi-oriented Jama’atu Nasril Islam (JNI) to Salafist preachers—wield immense influence. Buhari enjoyed their tacit support due to his perceived piety. Will they anoint a successor, or will their endorsements fragment along sectarian lines?
The Generational Shift
Buhari’s base included both elderly rural voters and a youth wave drawn to his anti-corruption image. Can any contender replicate this cross-generational appeal, or will the under-30 electorate drift toward Kwankwaso’s populism or El-Rufai’s reformist pitch?
The Banditry Wildcard
Rising insecurity in the Northwest has eroded trust in the political class. If banditry worsens, voters may punish the APC and seek alternatives outside the establishment—potentially benefiting Kwankwaso or a third-party candidate.
Tinubu’s Gambit: Can the South Control the North’s Votes?
Bola Tinubu cannot replace Buhari’s cultural mystique, but his control of the APC machinery offers a backdoor to inheriting his votes. Through federal patronage, party structures, and Vice President Shettima’s mediating role, Tinubu may attempt to convert Buhari’s personal following into institutional loyalty—just as he once delivered Yoruba votes to Buhari in 2015.
The 2027 election may hinge on whether Buharists see themselves as loyal to a man or a movement. If they prioritize party over personality, Tinubu could emerge as the ultimate power broker.
Conclusion: A Fractured Inheritance
What emerges may not be a single heir but a fractured landscape where Buhari’s 12 million votes become the battleground for Nigeria’s evolving political wars. The winner will not necessarily be the “next Buhari” but whoever understands that Northern politics has entered a new era—one where loyalty is no longer visceral but transactional, where populism competes with pragmatism, and where the pastoral simplicity of Buhari’s era gives way to a dangerous game of multidimensional chess.
The sheep are scattering, and the shepherds are all wolves in disguise.
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