— Says pre-election violence surge ‘no coincidence’
By Our Correspondent, Abuja
Former Kaduna Central Senator, Shehu Sani, has raised fresh alarms over the worsening security crisis in northern Nigeria, alleging that the increasing spate of terror attacks is being orchestrated as a political strategy ahead of the 2027 general elections.
In a post on his official X (formerly Twitter) account on Wednesday, Sani pointed to a recurring pattern that has become disturbingly predictable each election cycle.
“Each time an election comes closer, you will see an upsurge in daring terror attacks that were never experienced earlier in the North. That can’t be a coincidence,” he wrote .
The former lawmaker further argued that those behind the attacks could be identified not necessarily by their presence at the scene of violence, but by their public statements in its aftermath.
“There’s no name attached to it, but by their statements after every attack, you can fish them out,” Sani stated, in an apparent reference to opposition politicians who have been vocal in condemning the government’s security response following recent deadly incidents .
Describing the exploitation of insecurity for political gain in stark terms, Sani said: “Playing the terror chess cards with the aim of politically benefiting from it is one of the most tragic and devilish political strategy by the enablers and perpetrators. They are burning the farm in order to own the land” .
Akpabio’s prediction: Two weeks after elections, attacks will stop
Sani’s intervention comes less than forty-eight hours after Senate President Godswill Akpabio made a striking assertion about the temporal nature of the current wave of violence.
Speaking on Tuesday at the official commissioning of the Nigeria Revenue Service headquarters in Abuja, Akpabio linked the surge in terror attacks to a calculated plot against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.
“Believe me, Mr President, two weeks after you win the 2027 elections, the bomb blasts will stop. People are sponsoring it to distract you from your work,” Akpabio was quoted as saying .
The Senate President argued that the escalating insecurity should be viewed within the context of political activities gathering momentum across the country.
“You are seeing insecurity today. It is even increasing because elections are coming,” he said, adding that some actors were deliberately sponsoring unrest to unsettle the administration .
Akpabio expressed confidence that the situation would ease after the electoral cycle concluded. “As soon as elections are over, watch out, the first few weeks, you may not hear of such incidents again,” he said .
Defence Minister echoes similar concerns
Sani is not alone in drawing a connection between the political calendar and the intensification of violence. Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa (retired), made similar observations during an interview on Arise Television on Tuesday.
General Musa noted that recent attacks appeared to follow a pattern tied to political developments, pointing specifically to a day on which three bomb blasts occurred.
“The last time was about three bomb blasts in a particular day. To tell you that those things were targeted, it probably has to do with politics because if you notice, any time it is a political year, it goes up,” the minister said .
He suggested that some actors may be exploiting insecurity to undermine the government’s standing. “Individuals want to take advantage to make the government look weak or to show that there is no need keeping the government,” he added .
When asked who might be behind such acts, the minister responded: “Anybody who does not mean well for the country and there are a lot of them, both within and outside” .
Background: Escalating violence despite government efforts
Sani’s warning and Akpabio’s prediction come against the backdrop of a dramatic deterioration in security conditions across northern Nigeria, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of the Federal Government’s counter-terrorism and anti-banditry operations.
According to the Global Terrorism Index 2026, Nigeria recorded the largest increase in terrorism-related deaths anywhere in the world in 2025, a staggering 46 per cent surge to 750 fatalities. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram were responsible for over 82 per cent of the killings. Nigeria now ranks fourth globally for terrorist impact, with a jihadist resurgence that remains unchecked despite sustained military campaigns .
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) paints an even grimmer picture. Nigeria suffered 11,968 conflict-related deaths in 2025 alone — more than Syria, Yemen, and Iraq combined. In February 2026 alone, militants massacred between 162 and 170 civilians in Woro and Nuku villages in Kwara State. At least 71 people perished in Niger State raids, while 25 more were killed in twin Boko Haram attacks in Adamawa’s Madagali and Hong districts .
The Easter period of 2026 proved particularly bloody. Dozens of Christians were reportedly killed during Palm Sunday and Easter Sunday services in Plateau, Kaduna and Nasarawa states, prompting a United States lawmaker to call for the removal of Nigeria’s Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle .
President Tinubu condemned the killings, but voices from affected communities have insisted that official statements have not translated into safety on the ground .
Political accusations and counter-accusations
The security crisis has become deeply politicised, with accusations flying across party lines. Senator Akpabio framed the attacks as a “gang up” to distract President Tinubu from his reform agenda .
However, Sani himself has previously accused northern political elites of hypocrisy, warning that the blood of innocent people should not be used as “chess pieces for political ambition” ahead of 2027 .
In a November 2025 address in Kaduna, Sani criticised some northern leaders for allegedly seeing the resurgence of attacks as an opportunity to remove President Tinubu from office. He urged citizens to stop celebrating the killing of soldiers or using the blood of victims as a tool to capture power .
He also dismissed claims of security improvement by the Northern States Governors’ Forum. The Forum had claimed that the security situation in the North showed “measurable improvement,” but critics — including Sani — have described such assertions as “flagrant and mendacious absurdity, dripping with the self-serving cynicism of APC chieftains desperate to project competence ahead of the 2027 polls” .
Government’s counter-terrorism strategy under scrutiny
The Federal Government has acknowledged adopting unconventional methods to combat the insurgency. The Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) recently confirmed that it arms trained vigilantes and hunters as part of the national counter-terrorism strategy.
In a statement issued in December 2025, the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), an arm of ONSA, explained that “Nigeria’s kinetic approach includes the deployment of hybrid forces,” involving the coordinated use of regular security forces and trained irregular auxiliaries such as hunters and vigilante elements .
The same strategy, according to ONSA, was adopted in the North-East, where the Civilian Joint Task Force worked alongside the military against Boko Haram insurgents, and is currently being deployed in parts of the North-West and North-Central .
Despite these efforts, the violence has continued unabated, leading to mounting pressure on the President from both domestic and international actors. A report released on Tuesday by the United World Congress of Diplomats (UN-WCD), signed by Florida House Representative Kimberly Daniels, urged President Tinubu to “look inward” and act decisively against what it described as internal elements undermining national security .
The report specifically called for the removal or redeployment of Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, citing allegations of complicity with bandits during his tenure as governor of Zamfara State, as well as testimonies about the harbouring of bandit leaders and the facilitation of ransom payments .
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