Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has dismissed a recent political projection that placed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead in 20 states for the 2027 presidential election, describing it as cooked-up and lacking credible data.
Atiku’s position was articulated on Tuesday by his Media Adviser, Paul Ibe, who issued a statement via his official X (formerly Twitter) handle questioning the credibility of the forecast released by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng.
The projection claimed that Tinubu would win 20 states under current circumstances, with Atiku projected to secure nine states and Peter Obi of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) winning eight states plus the Federal Capital Territory.
Based on the PIG assessment, Tinubu’s greatest strength is still in the South-West, where he’s expected to sweep all six states.
Lagos, the heart of his political base, is also forecasted to back him. The projection additionally hands the President a key northern stronghold, with Kano predicted to go to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
In his statement, Ibe argued that the so-called forecast is not a credible substitute for a properly conducted opinion poll.
He demanded that the group behind the projection make public its methodology, including the number of Nigerians surveyed, the states covered, the sample size, and the underlying data, stressing that without answers to these basic questions, Nigerians have every right to treat the projection with profound skepticism.
Ibe further warned against what he described as an attempt to manufacture a narrative of an already-decided election, which he said could pave the way for rigging by the Tinubu-led APC government.
“The only way for them to secure victory is through rigging, and that process is already underway,” Ibe had previously alleged, raising the alarm that the ruling All Progressives Congress had begun moves to rig the 2027 elections .
He insisted that no polling organisation, political group, or government has the authority to predetermine the choice of the Nigerian people.
“We are not doing that in the ADC that are manufacturing figures as a dress rehearsal for possible rigging in 2027, that’s why they are talking about 11 million votes; how? Those are manufactured figures but we are not doing that in the ADC,” Ibe said .
The PIG itself acknowledged that Nigeria’s political landscape remains fluid, with alliances, defections, and economic conditions capable of changing current calculations.
The group stated that its projection should be understood as a political snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the eventual outcome in 2027 .
Ibe’s criticism comes amid ongoing political realignments ahead of the 2027 election, with Atiku actively engaging stakeholders of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as he pursues his presidential bid.
The former Vice President has declared that he is “competing with thieves” who, according to him, “stole the election. Now they have stolen the economy. They have stolen everything” .
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