Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 18.02 per cent in September, continuing a six-month streak of deceleration, according to official data released on Wednesday.
The figure, published the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest Consumer Price Index report, marks a significant drop from the 20.12 per cent recorded in August 2025.
This development is particularly notable as it represents the first time in three years that the inflation rate has dropped below the 20 per cent threshold. The sustained decline, partly influenced by the recent rebasing of the CPI, has provided the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with the confidence to begin easing monetary policy. This was evidenced by the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to implement its first interest rate cut in years last month, and economists now project further cuts may be imminent.
The NBS report provided a detailed breakdown, stating, “On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2025 was 0.72 per cent, which was 0.02 per cent lower than the rate recorded in August 2025 (0.74 per cent). This means that in September 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2025.”
A key driver of the overall improvement has been the notable cooling of food prices. The annual food inflation rate stood at 16.87 per cent in September, a substantial 20.9 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in September 2024. The NBS attributed the significant annual decline to the technical effect of the change in the base year. More encouragingly, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation was recorded at -1.57 per cent, indicating an actual decrease in the average price of food items. The report credited this decrease to falling prices for staples such as “maize (corn) grains, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, [and] fresh pepper.”
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy costs, also showed signs of moderating. It stood at 19.53 per cent year-on-year, down from 27.43 per cent in September 2024.
Ahead of the data release, financial analysts had anticipated the continued disinflationary trend. Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, had projected a easing to 18.8 per cent, noting that a “combination of softer food prices and a strengthening naira may have tamed price pressures.” He added that “Further signs of cooling price pressures may pave the way for further rate cuts by the CBN in November to stimulate economic growth.”
This sentiment was echoed by other financial institutions following the release. The experts at Arthur Steven Asset Management stated, “Nigeria’s inflation eased to 18.02 per cent in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline following the 50 bps MPR rate cut in September. The sustained disinflation trend strengthens expectations of a possible further rate reduction at the next MPC meeting in November.”
Adding further analysis, AIICO Capital highlighted the role of government policy, stating, “The decline in inflation reflects the positive impact of recent government policy reforms.” They also pointed to supportive external factors, noting that “energy prices and the FX rate have remained stable, with the naira appreciating by 2.9 per cent in September 2025, its strongest level in 15 months.” The firm concluded that the sharp decline “signals the possibility of further rate cuts,” while cautioning that sustaining price stability will require “consistent policy discipline, strengthened food security measures, and continued stability in energy prices.”
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