The All Progressives Congress (APC) will appoint a new National Chairman tomorrow during a high-stakes National Executive Committee (NEC) session in Abuja, a decisive decision after Abdullahi Ganduje’s abrupt resignation, officially for health reasons but widely seen by analysts as a tactical retreat.
Ahead of Thursday’s 10 am showdown at the party’s headquarters, key organs of the ruling party have wheeled into motion. The National Working Committee (NWC) locked itself in a two-hour confidential meeting Monday to finalise the NEC agenda, zeroing in on the chairman selection and congress timelines, per insider sources.
However, President Bola Tinubu’s silence on his preferred candidate has thrown the ruling party into a frenzy of speculation. The president’s reluctance to tip his hand, even to his closest allies, has left party stalwarts scrambling to decipher his intentions, with various factions jostling for influence in the absence of clear direction from Aso Rock.
All NEC members—including President Tinubu, will convene tomorrow to appoint Ganduje’s successor.
Ganduje’s exit, timed as political heavyweights begin positioning for 2027, was no accident. Like his predecessors, John Odigie Oyegun, Adams Oshiomhole—he departed when utility waned, underscoring the APC’s cutthroat pragmatism. Now, with a leadership void threatening party cohesion, the chairmanship battle doubles as the first skirmish in a looming electoral war.
Amidst this uncertainty, the resurgence of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc as potential kingmakers presents a fascinating subplot. The CPC, though long dissolved as a party, remains a potent political identity within the APC, particularly among northern elements who formed the backbone of late President Muhammadu Buhari’s support. That the late president’s political family should re-emerge as decisive players at this juncture reveals much.
Sources within the Villa, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of discussions, reveal that, “Tinubu is weighing the strategic value of empowering the CPC faction against the risk of alienating other power blocs within the party’s fractious coalition”.
Tanko Al-Makura, the former Nasarawa governor and CPC stalwart, embodies this resurgent tendency. His recent appointment to head the Universal Basic Education Commission raised eyebrows among political observers, with some interpreting it as a preparatory move for higher office while others see it as compensatory consolation.
Al-Makura’s supporters argue that his ascension would finally give the CPC bloc its long-denied place at the table, fulfilling the original promise of the 2013 merger that birthed the APC. His detractors counter that the party cannot afford to be held hostage by legacy considerations when facing an increasingly formidable opposition.
Former presidential aide and a close ally to Al-Makura, Okoi Obono-Obla, made clear to Spear News that the CPC bloc stands firmly behind Senator Almakura. He described the former Nasarawa governor as a politician of uncommon resilience – neither the sort to fold under pressure nor one susceptible to financial inducements.
He maintained that this was about installing leadership that wouldn’t compromise what Buhari stood for, adding Almakura’s track record proved him uniquely qualified to deliver on that count.
“The APC requires a leader who embodies charisma, gravitas, and a broad national perspective—someone with proven experience and founding membership status, who commands both national respect and widespread acceptability. Senator Almakura exemplifies these qualities”, Obono-Obla told Spear News.
The calculus becomes more complex when considering other names like Senator George Akume, the current Secretary to the Government of the Federation. Akume’s deep roots in Benue politics and his longstanding alliance with Tinubu make him a formidable candidate in theory, but his current position as SGF – arguably more influential than the party chairmanship – creates a paradox.
Would the presidency sacrifice a trusted lieutenant in a crucial government role for the uncertain benefits of party control? The delicate dance between government and party structures has tripped up many a political career in Nigeria’s history, and Akume’s careful distancing from overt campaigning suggests he understands these treacherous waters well.
Younger aspirants like Niger’s Senator Mohammed Sani Musa present an alternative path for the APC. His technocratic credentials and relative youth appeal to those arguing for generational change, but Nigerian politics has never been particularly kind to reformers who lack established godfathers. Musa’s “313” moniker, referencing his electoral successes, hints at political savvy, yet the national chairmanship demands more than just campaign competence – it requires the ability to reconcile warring factions and enforce discipline, qualities that remain untested in his case.
The wildcard remains Yahaya Bello, the embattled former Kogi governor whose political obituary has been written prematurely more times than anyone can count. Bello’s audacious political instincts and grassroots network make him a constant factor in calculations, despite his ongoing legal troubles. Nigerian history is replete with politicians who resurrected their careers from seemingly terminal scandals, and Bello appears determined to join that dubious pantheon. His supporters argue that only a street-fighter like Bello can take the battle to the opposition, while critics warn that his baggage could sink the APC’s carefully cultivated image.
Behind these personal ambitions lies a deeper structural tension within the APC. The party’s original promise as a progressive coalition has gradually eroded through successive cycles of realpolitik and power consolidation.
What began as an ideological project to unseat an entrenched ruling party has itself become the establishment, complete with all the accompanying contradictions. This leadership transition offers Tinubu an opportunity to recalibrate – either by returning to the party’s reformist roots or by doubling down on machine politics.
Analysts argue that, as a scion of Awolowo’s progressive tradition, Tinubu is poised to reinvent the party as a force for transformative change.
The international dimension adds another layer of complexity. Across Africa, ruling parties from South Africa’s ANC to Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF have struggled to manage leadership transitions without fracturing. The APC’s ability to navigate this change will be closely watched by foreign investors and diplomatic missions as a bellwether for Nigeria’s political stability. A messy succession could reinforce perceptions of institutional weakness just as the government seeks to attract investment, while a smooth transition would project an image of disciplined cohesion.
Opposition parties circle like vultures sensing vulnerability. The Peoples Democratic Party, Labour Party and the recently formed Coalition under the ADC have already begun framing the APC’s internal debates as evidence of deeper dysfunction, hoping to capitalise on any missteps.
Their strategists know that ruling party conventions often reveal more fault lines than they resolve, creating openings for opposition growth. The memory of 2015, when the APC itself exploited PDP divisions to seize power, serves as both inspiration and warning.
As the National Executive Committee convenes to make its decision, the unspoken question hanging over the proceedings is whether this leadership change will mark a new chapter for the APC or merely reshuffle the same old deck. Tinubu’s continued silence suggests he understands the power of suspense in political theatre – by keeping everyone guessing, he maintains maximum leverage until the final moment.
What emerges from this crucible will shape Nigeria’s political landscape for years to come. Will it be a chairman who prioritises party unity above all else? A technocrat focused on electoral mechanics? Or a streetwise operator prepared for bare-knuckle politics? And as the clock ticks down to decision day, the only certainty is that someone’s ambitions will be realised while others’ dreams will crash against the hard rocks of political reality.
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