By Emameh Gabriel
If there is an art to repackaging political failure, Atiku Abubakar has mastered it, and the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) could be his magnum opus.
The power dynamics of Nigerian politics have once again been jolted by seismic shifts as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar appears to have conceded defeat in his protracted battle against Nyesom Wike for control of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In a move that underscores both strategic recalibration and political survival, Atiku has abandoned the PDP, the party he once sought to lead back to power, and aligned himself with erstwhile rivals Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai, and a cadre of disaffected opposition figures to forge a new political vehicle: the All Democratic Alliance (ADA).
From all indications, the former vice president has not merely left the PDP, he has deliberately burnt the bridge behind him, taking with him some of Nigeria’s most incendiary political figures to ignite the ADA.
This development is as much a clear manifestation of Atikuโs dwindling influence within the PDP as it is a damning indictment of the partyโs internal disarray. For two years, the PDP has been riven by factional warfare, with Wikeโs camp consolidating control while Atikuโs loyalists found themselves increasingly marginalised. The silence from Atiku in recent weeks, as the PDPโs leadership tussle raged on, spoke volumes. It was not the quiet of a man plotting his next move, but the resignation of a politician who knows the game is up. The PDP, still bleeding from its self-inflicted wound of handing Atiku its 2023 presidential ticket, a decision many within the party now regard as catastrophic, has made it abundantly clear that it will not repeat the mistake in 2027.
But if Atikuโs exit from the PDP was inevitable, his next steps are fraught with risk. The formation of ADA, alongside figures like El-Rufai and Amaechi, both of whom carry their own heavy baggage, suggests a marriage of convenience rather than a union of shared ideology.
El-Rufai, the polarising former governor of Kaduna, remains a divisive figure even within the opposition, while Amaechiโs political fortunes have waned since he left the corridors of power in 2023. That these men now find themselves in the same trench speaks less to a grand vision for Nigeria and more to the sheer necessity of finding a platform from which to remain politically relevant.
ADAโs registration timing speaks volumes, as APC factions and external groups scheme to unseat Tinubu in 2027, the opposition spots its chance. Yet, the question remains: does ADA represent a genuine alternative, or is it merely a vessel for the ambitions of a few seasoned politicians who have nowhere else to go? The partyโs slogan, โJustice for Allโ, and its emblem, a maize cob symbolising abundance, are carefully crafted to evoke notions of equity and prosperity. But Nigerians, long accustomed to the gap between political rhetoric and reality, may be forgiven for their scepticism.
So here we are again. Another acronym. Another “movement”. Another round of lofty promises. Even the most optimistic political watchers are struggling to keep a straight face.
What makes this development particularly intriguing is the tacit admission by Atiku and his allies that existing political parties, whether the PDP, the Labour Party, or smaller factions, are no longer viable avenues for their ambitions. Reports suggest that Atiku, ever the strategist, is wary of last minute betrayals, fearing that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has already infiltrated key opposition structures.
For the PDP, Atikuโs departure is both a relief and a reckoning. With Wike now the undisputed powerbroker, the party may finally achieve the internal cohesion it has lacked for years. But cohesion alone is not enough. The PDP must now confront the uncomfortable truth that its electoral appeal has diminished, its once formidable national presence eroded by defections and defeats. If it cannot redefine itself beyond being the party that lost to Tinubu, its future as Nigeriaโs main opposition is in jeopardy.
For the ruling APC, the emergence of ADA creates a complex dynamic. While a divided opposition traditionally favours incumbent advantage, ADA’s potential to mobilise northern strongholds loyal to Atiku and El-Rufai could threaten Tinubu’s reelection calculus. The party’s playbook will likely combine selective co-optation of moderate elements with strategic deployment of institutional pressure – a time-tested formula for neutralizing emerging threats before they consolidate.
While a unified opposition would present greater challenges, President Tinubuโs proven track record as a master political strategist and consensus builder gives his administration significant advantages. His ability to negotiate and form strategic alliances has been demonstrated throughout his career, and this skill may well come into play in engaging with the new blocs.
In the end, Atikuโs gamble is a high stakes play for relevance in a political environment that has increasingly left him behind. Whether ADA becomes a credible force or merely a footnote in Nigeriaโs turbulent political history will depend on its ability to transcend the ambitions of its founders and articulate a vision that resonates beyond elite intrigues. For now, one thing is certain: the 2027 election campaign has begun in earnest, and the battle lines are being redrawn.
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