President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on Friday, anchoring the nation’s fiscal plan on a conservative oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and an average exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the US dollar.
The budget, themed “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” signals the administration’s intent to lock in recent economic gains while navigating a fragile global landscape.
The presentation, held on December 19, 2025, outlined a total expenditure of ₦58.18 trillion against an expected revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, leaving a deficit of ₦23.85 trillion, which represents 4.28% of the projected GDP.
Key to the revenue assumptions is an oil production target of 1.84 million barrels per day, a figure reliant on sustained improvements in security and ongoing sector reforms.
In his address, President Tinubu framed the 2026 fiscal plan as a pivotal transition “from survival to growth,” arguing that the painful reforms of the last two and a half years have begun to bear fruit. He pointed to moderating inflation, now at 14.45% as of November 2025 from a high of 24.23% in March, and an economic growth rate that ticked up to 3.98% in the third quarter of 2025. He also highlighted the rise in external reserves to a seven-year high of approximately $47 billion.
“These outcomes are not accidental or lucky. They are the consequence of our difficult policy choices,” the President stated, acknowledging the widespread hardship caused by measures like the removal of the fuel subsidy and the floatation of the naira. “Our next objective is to deepen our gains in pursuit of enduring and inclusive prosperity.”
The budget allocates significant resources to national security and human capital development. Defence and security received the largest sectoral allocation of ₦5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at ₦3.56 trillion, education at ₦3.52 trillion, and health at ₦2.48 trillion. The President outlined a new, aggressive security doctrine, declaring that any armed non-state actors would be classified as terrorists and targeted accordingly.
A notable shift announced was a stringent focus on budget implementation and revenue mobilisation. Tinubu issued direct orders to top finance officials to ensure strict adherence to appropriation details and timelines. He warned heads of government agencies that meeting revenue targets would be a core component of their performance evaluations, backed by a comprehensive digitisation of revenue collection to curb leakages.
“Nigeria can no longer afford leakages, inefficiencies, or underperformance in strategic agencies. Every institution must play its part,” he asserted.
The President also emphasised the “Nigeria First” procurement policy, mandating all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies to prioritise Nigerian-made goods and services to boost local industry and job creation.
While the budget projects a continued deficit, the administration promises a disciplined approach to borrowing and spending. With debt servicing estimated at ₦15.52 trillion and capital expenditure pegged at ₦26.08 trillion, the government aims to balance fiscal sustainability with aggressive investment in productivity-enhancing projects.
As the bill now moves to the National Assembly for scrutiny and passage, its foundational assumptions—the ₦1,400/$ exchange rate and the $64.85 oil benchmark—will be key points of debate, testing the legislature’s confidence in the executive’s economic projections for the coming year.
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