Nigeria’s trade surplus for the third quarter of 2025 reached N6.69 trillion, as recent foreign exchange and trade liberalisation policies strengthened export competitiveness while making imports more expensive, according to the latest foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
The NBS report released on Thursday showed that total exports stood at N22.81 trillion, significantly outpacing imports valued at N16.12 trillion.
The surplus represents a 27.29% increase compared to the N5.26 trillion recorded in the same period last year, though it reflects a 10.36% decline from the N7.46 trillion surplus in the second quarter of 2025.
Economists and private sector leaders attribute the sustained positive trade performance to deliberate policy shifts, particularly the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market and the depreciation of the naira.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, stated, “The current economic reforms have resulted in a situation where export performance has been increasing because of the reform in the foreign exchange market, the liberalisation of the market, and the fact that the depreciation in the currency has made our export sector more attractive and competitive.”
Yusuf further explained that the same currency depreciation has naturally curbed import demand. “Once you experience depreciation, imports become more expensive and less attractive. People will now import only if they don’t have a choice. Local products, especially those with high local content, are generally more competitive,” he said.
The data reveals a structural shift in trade patterns. While crude oil exports remained dominant at N12.81 trillion, non-oil sectors showed significant movement.
Exports of raw materials surged by 136.38% year-on-year to N1.04 trillion. Conversely, agricultural exports fell by 11.69% to N786.62 billion, with stakeholders citing sector-specific challenges such as insecurity and logistics.
On the import side, the cost of manufactured goods stood at N7.77 trillion, raw material imports rose 27.70% to N2.02 trillion, and agricultural imports increased by 25.03% to N1.10 trillion compared to Q3 2024.
Gabriel Idahosa, former President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, noted that the trends align with policy objectives. “The whole idea of unifying the exchange rate is that we should be gaining from exports since the value of the Naira has come down. Most countries tactically devalue their currency to promote exports,” he said.
Idahosa also highlighted the impact of increased domestic refining, which is expected to reduce crude oil exports over time, underscoring the critical need to deepen non-oil export growth.
India, Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Italy were Nigeria’s top export destinations for the quarter.
Stakeholders have called for policy consistency to lock in the gains. “Consistency in policy is what guarantees continuity. The reform has come to stay,” Yusuf emphasised, noting that the improved trade balance is a direct outcome of the government’s economic strategy.
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