Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol has undergone a dramatic reversal, with official data revealing a staggering 53% reduction in the import bill, saving the nation an estimated N6.07 trillion in the first nine months of 2025.
According to an analysis of the latest foreign trade statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the value of imported Premium Motor Spirit plummeted to N5.42 trillion between January and September 2025, a sharp decline from the N11.50 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
The quarterly breakdown illustrates a consistent and accelerating trend away from dependency on foreign fuel. The contraction began in the first quarter, with imports falling 53.8% from N3.81 trillion in Q1 2024 to N1.76 trillion in Q1 2025.
The decline continued through the second quarter, which saw a 45.6% drop to N2.38 trillion, and culminated in the most drastic cut in the third quarter. Between July and September 2025, petrol imports collapsed by 61.2%, falling from N3.32 trillion to just N1.29 trillion.
Cumulatively, this represents a N6.07 trillion reduction in foreign expenditure on petrol, a seismic shift for an economy long burdened by a massive fuel import subsidy and the associated foreign exchange drain.
While the NBS report does not explicitly attribute the decline to a single factor, the scale and timing of the decrease directly coincide with the ramp-up of domestic refining capacity, most notably the operationalization of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki.
The refinery, which commenced diesel and aviation fuel production in January 2025 and began supplying petrol to the domestic market in September, is widely seen as the central catalyst for this structural change in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
This import contraction signals a gradual easing of the intense foreign exchange pressure that has historically accompanied Nigeria’s status as a net importer of refined petroleum products, a pressure exacerbated following the removal of the fuel subsidy in 2023.
The data indicates that while PMS remained a top import item by value in 2025, its dominance has been significantly curtailed. The development aligns with the federal government’s stated goal of achieving fuel self-sufficiency and has been facilitated by policy interventions, including the resolution of the naira-for-crude oil swap mechanism that ensured the Dangote refinery could sustainably source feedstock.
Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, has framed the refinery’s launch as a transformative moment for the nation’s economy, promising a comprehensive overhaul of the downstream sector. Following a recent visit by President Bola Tinubu to the facility, Dangote hinted at a forthcoming major “shakedown,” emphasizing that the project’s impact would extend far beyond mere price adjustments.
He has also outlined ambitious expansion plans, with proposals to potentially double the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, which would position it as the largest single-train refinery in the world.
The immediate effect has been a reduction in the national import bill and a corresponding boost to the country’s trade balance. Economists note that the savings from reduced fuel imports alleviate strain on the national currency reserves and contribute to a healthier current account position.
The emergence of a substantial local refining alternative has also introduced new dynamics into the domestic fuel market, with occasional price fluctuations observed as supply chains adjust. Dangote has asserted that the refinery’s output has effectively eliminated the risk of the perennial fuel queues that once plagued the country, marking a symbolic end to an era of scarcity and import dependency.
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