A stark projection has been issued about the potential risks the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faces if it chooses former President Goodluck Jonathan as its candidate in the 2027 presidential election.
The analysis, put forward by Festus Keyamo, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria and serving Minister of Aviation, suggests the party could be left without a candidate due to a constitutional complication.
The PDP’s position is described as particularly difficult. After choosing not to deliberately zone its presidential ticket to the South in 2023, the party subsequently lost its traditional strongholds in the South-South and South-East. In a bid to win back this support, the party has now zoned its 2027 ticket to the South.
Within this strategy, former President Goodluck Jonathan is seen by some as an attractive candidate, largely due to a belief that he is constitutionally eligible to serve only one more term. However, Keyamo’s analysis points to a significant legal danger rooted in Section 137 (3) of the 1999 Constitution, as amended.
This specific subsection was introduced through a Fourth Amendment Act that was passed after the court judgments which cleared Jonathan to run in the 2015 election. The new clause states that a person who was sworn in as President for two terms cannot again be elected to that office. The crucial legal question of whether this amendment applies retroactively to Jonathan, who served one full term and finished the term of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, remains entirely untested at the Supreme Court.
“All the arguments as to whether the section can be interpreted to affect him will not be decided on Social Media, but at the Supreme Court,” Keyamo stated. He further cautioned the party, saying, “If he is barred from running AFTER nominations have closed and the PDP is declared as having no candidate, nobody should scream ‘judiciary is corrupt’ because such a large party saw the judicial danger ahead and deliberately ignored it.”
The former president is not the only option for the PDP in the South. Yet, the analysis suggests other paths are also fraught with difficulty. Fielding a fresh candidate from the South-West would present a significant challenge, as no other region of the country is likely to vote for a Yoruba candidate eligible for two new terms, who would also have to battle the well-oiled political structures of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in that zone.
Similarly, the potential of wooing back Peter Obi, who left the PDP to run for the Labour Party in 2023, is seen as problematic. While his recent comments about serving a single term aim to address concerns over tenure, the move could alienate his core supporters. “The principled ones amongst the ‘obidients’ will see him as going back to his vomit of ‘structure of criminality’ and may not be too vociferous in their support anymore,” Keyamo argued.
The core of the PDP’s current dilemma is traced back to its decision in 2023. “This is happening to PDP because it committed an original sin in 2023 by lacking the balls to zone its Presidential ticket to the South,” the analysis concludes, suggesting that unless something extraordinary occurs, the party may be unable to secure victory before 2031.
This warning comes amid a confirmed background of renewed efforts by some powerful northern elites within the PDP to persuade Dr. Jonathan to contest on their platform. These figures are reportedly betting on his national appeal and perceived eligibility to unite the party and reclaim lost voters, viewing him as a unifying figure capable of bridging the party’s internal divides.
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