Growing concerns have emerged within Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector over the potential impact of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, with industry stakeholders warning that prolonged hostilities could disrupt drug imports, delay the supply of critical raw materials, and ultimately trigger shortages of essential medicines across the country.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions now stretching into weeks of sustained military exchanges, experts say Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported pharmaceuticals leaves it particularly vulnerable to global supply chain shocks, especially those affecting active pharmaceutical ingredients, the core components used in the production of medicines.
The ongoing conflict, which has intensified with sustained attacks on strategic locations in Iran and retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region, has already begun to reshape global logistics routes and energy markets. With the Middle East serving as a critical transit corridor for international shipping, disruptions linked to the crisis are raising fears of delays in the movement of pharmaceutical inputs from major manufacturing hubs such as China and India to Nigeria.
Stakeholders warn that while the immediate impact on drug prices may appear modest, the longer-term implications could be far more severe, with shortages posing a greater risk than price increases. They note that although local manufacturers are currently absorbing rising operational costs, including higher energy and logistics expenses, sustained pressure could force adjustments that will inevitably affect consumers.
Chairman of the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Group of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Oluwatosin Jolayemi, acknowledged that the conflict is already influencing production costs through increased logistics and transportation expenses but maintained that the effect on prices has so far been contained. He explained that manufacturers are making deliberate efforts to shield consumers from sudden hikes by absorbing the financial shocks within their operations.
“It will affect the cost of work, logistics costs, either logistical APIs or the logistics of local transportation. But I do not think it is going to be as significant. It might just be slight, but not as much as it has been said,” he stated, adding that most local producers have not yet adjusted their pricing structures in response to the crisis.
Despite this cautious optimism, Jolayemi warned that a prolonged disruption to global shipping routes, particularly those connected to the importation of active pharmaceutical ingredients, could significantly alter the situation. He stressed that availability of medicines remains the more pressing concern, noting that any breakdown in supply chains would have immediate consequences for access to essential drugs.
“If the war prolongs, there will certainly be a price increase. But it is not even the price increase that is more dangerous than the availability or the scarcity,” he said, indicating that potential price increases could range between five and 10 per cent if the crisis persists.
Nigeria’s vulnerability is underscored by its reliance on imports for approximately 70 per cent of its essential medicines, according to data from regulatory authorities, leaving local production to account for only a fraction of national demand in a country with a population exceeding 200 million. This structural dependence has long been identified as a critical weakness within the healthcare system, one that global disruptions such as the current conflict threaten to expose further.
President of the Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria, Aliyu Tanko, emphasised that many of the medicines consumed in Nigeria, or their active components, originate from Asia and are transported through global shipping networks that may be directly or indirectly affected by instability in the Middle East. He noted that any sustained geopolitical tension in the region could disrupt logistics, delay supplies, and increase the cost of imports.
“Many of these medicines or their active pharmaceutical ingredients originate from manufacturing hubs such as India and China and are transported through global routes that may be affected by instability in the Middle East. Any prolonged geopolitical tension in that region could therefore disrupt shipping logistics, delay supplies, and increase the cost of importing essential medicines into Nigeria,” he said.
Tanko added that early indicators of cost pressure are already emerging, driven by rising fuel prices, heightened shipping risks, and fluctuations in foreign exchange. He explained that medicine pricing in Nigeria is highly sensitive to such variables, warning that continued disruptions could make price increases unavoidable, particularly for drugs used in managing chronic illnesses.
The National Chairman of the Association of Community Pharmacists of Nigeria, Ambrose Ezeh, echoed similar concerns, linking the surge in global oil prices to rising production and distribution costs within the pharmaceutical sector. He warned that Nigeria’s dependence on imported medicines could lead to scarcity if supply chains are further strained.
“About 70 per cent of drugs used in Nigeria are imported. If the supply chain is disrupted and imported goods are not coming in, the little ones available will become more expensive, and some essential medicines may not even be available,” he said, noting that price adjustments are already being observed among wholesalers and retailers responding to increased operational costs.
Ezeh further pointed to foreign exchange volatility as an additional pressure point, explaining that a stronger dollar raises the cost of importing both finished medicines and raw materials, compounding the challenges faced by local distributors and consumers alike.
Beyond immediate market concerns, health sector experts warn that the broader economic implications of the conflict could deepen Nigeria’s healthcare funding gaps. As global resources are redirected toward sustaining military operations, financial support for health programmes in low- and middle-income countries may decline, placing critical interventions such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria control, immunisation, and maternal health services at greater risk.
The potential disruption to the importation of active pharmaceutical ingredients has emerged as a central concern among industry professionals, who describe these inputs as the foundation of drug manufacturing. With Nigeria sourcing the majority of its APIs from China and India, any delay or interruption in supply could significantly weaken local production capacity.
Former President of the Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria, Olumide Akintayo, warned that the situation highlights the country’s limited progress toward self-sufficiency in pharmaceutical manufacturing. He criticised the level of government support for the sector, arguing that inadequate policy implementation and underinvestment have left Nigeria exposed to external shocks.
“Government is not yet serious. Every serious nation places drug matters on the exclusive list for a reason. The reason is to achieve maximum regulation and control. But we have not achieved that in Nigeria,” he said, adding that the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic have not translated into meaningful structural reforms.
Akintayo noted that Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector contributes minimally to the national economy compared to countries such as India and China, where the industry plays a significant role in gross domestic product. He warned that rising energy costs, particularly for diesel and gas used in manufacturing, would further drive up production expenses, with the burden ultimately falling on consumers.
“Drug pricing will soar again. If you look at energy costs now, somebody has to bear the brunt and it is the consumer,” he stated.
Also commenting on the issue, former National Chairman of the Association of Community Pharmacists of Nigeria, Adewale Oladigbolu, said prolonged global conflict could significantly affect access to medicines by increasing costs and disrupting supply chains. He noted that most Nigerians already pay for healthcare out of pocket, meaning that rising drug prices would place additional financial strain on households.
“It means that people will have to spend more on getting healthcare and medicines. Household income will have less room to manoeuvre because they are paying more for energy and more for health,” he said, warning that higher costs could lead to delays in seeking medical care and potentially worsen health outcomes.
Oladigbolu further explained that delays in the importation of active pharmaceutical ingredients would directly affect local manufacturing, resulting in either scarcity or higher prices depending on the availability and cost of raw materials.
Additional concerns were raised by pharmaceutical professionals who warned that the ongoing crisis exposes the fragility of Nigeria’s import-dependent system. They argued that while the situation presents immediate risks, it also offers an opportunity for the country to prioritise investments in local production, strengthen regulatory frameworks, and build a more resilient pharmaceutical supply chain.
The stakeholders called on the Federal Government to adopt proactive measures, including expanding domestic manufacturing capacity, establishing regional stockpiles of essential medicines, and strengthening health security infrastructure. They stressed that coordinated efforts at both national and continental levels would be necessary to mitigate the impact of global crises on healthcare delivery.
As the conflict continues to unfold, industry observers warn that Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector stands at a critical juncture, where external shocks could either deepen existing vulnerabilities or serve as a catalyst for long-overdue reforms aimed at achieving self-sufficiency and ensuring sustainable access to essential medicines.
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