By Ada Samson, Abuja
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has unveiled revised economic figures following its comprehensive rebasing exercise, positioning Nigeria as Africa’s fourth-largest economy with a nominal GDP of $243 billion (N372.82 trillion) for 2024.
Statistician General of Nigeria, Adeyemi Adeniran, emphasised that these adjustments reflect normal statistical practice rather than political engineering, noting that over 60% of national statistical offices worldwide undertake similar rebasing exercises every five years to maintain accuracy
The recalibration, which updates the base year from 2010 to 2019 to reflect contemporary economic structures, reveals an 18.3% year-on-year nominal growth alongside a 3.13% real expansion in Q1 2025.
This recalibration, shifting the base year from 2010 to 2019 to capture structural changes, shows an economy undergoing significant transformation despite global headwinds.
The 18.3% year-on-year nominal growth accompanies a 3.13% real expansion in Q1 2025, painting a picture of gradual recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic’s lingering effects and subsequent economic shocks. Underlying these headline figures lies a complex story of sectoral rebalancing, with services now commanding 53.09% of output compared to agriculture’s 25.83% share, while crude oil’s contribution dwindles to just 5.85% – a stark contrast to its historical dominance.
Examining the quarterly performance reveals nuanced trends beneath the surface-level growth. The economy generated N94.05 trillion in nominal terms during Q1 2025, representing an 18.3% increase from Q1 2024’s N79.51 trillion.
More telling is the real GDP growth acceleration to 3.13% from 2.27% during the same period, suggesting improving productivity beyond price effects. This expansion was primarily driven by the services sector’s 4.33% growth, accounting for 57.5% of quarterly output, while agriculture managed a fragile 0.07% recovery after consecutive contractions.
The non-oil sector maintained its dominance with 96.03% of GDP, though this marked a slight decrease from 97.2% in Q4 2024 as oil production rebounded to 1.62 million barrels per day, pushing the sector’s contribution to 3.97%. Manufacturing held steady at 9.62% of output, though its stagnant performance relative to population growth highlights untapped potential in industrialisation efforts.
Behind these numbers lies an extensive methodological overhaul by the NBS, incorporating previously uncaptured economic activities through enhanced data collection frameworks.
The bureau conducted its first comprehensive Business Sample Census and Agriculture Sample Survey since 2010, complemented by updated Nigerian Living Standards Survey data and revised labour force statistics. This more granular approach increased 2019’s GDP valuation by 41.7% to N205 trillion from the pre-rebasing figure of N54.2 trillion, with subsequent annual revisions showing consistent growth: N213.64 trillion (2020), N243.3 trillion (2021), N247.23 trillion (2022), N314.02 trillion (2023), and the current N372.82 trillion (2024).
The historical trajectory since the new base year reveals an economy demonstrating resilience amidst challenges. After contracting 6.96% in 2020 due to pandemic disruptions, growth returned at 0.95% in 2021 before accelerating to 4.32% in 2022 – a recovery phase marked by pent-up demand and commodity price rebounds.
The growth rate moderated to 3.04% in 2023 amid election uncertainties and global inflationary pressures, before edging up to 3.38% in 2024 as policy reforms began taking effect. This pattern suggests Nigeria’s economy is stabilising at a 3-4% growth range, though well below the 6-7% levels needed to significantly impact poverty rates given population growth. The informal sector’s substantial N86.85 trillion contribution (42.5% of GDP) underscores both its importance as an employment safety net and the challenges it poses for formalisation and taxation efforts.
Sectoral contributions post-rebasing tell a story of gradual diversification, albeit with persistent structural weaknesses. Trade activities now represent 17.42% of output, slightly ahead of crop production’s 17.58%, while real estate accounts for 10.78% – all surpassing crude oil’s diminished role.
The telecoms sector alone contributes 8.5%, reflecting digital economy expansion, though this likely undercounts emerging fintech and gig economy activities. Manufacturing’s 9.62% share remains stagnant, constrained by infrastructure deficits and foreign exchange volatility affecting input costs.
Construction accounts for just 3.8%, highlighting underinvestment in critical infrastructure, while education and health services jointly contribute 4.2%, suggesting underfunding in human capital development. These structural imbalances persist despite the rebased figures showing a larger overall economy.
The recalibration carries significant implications for policymakers and investors alike. The improved data granularity enables more accurate targeting of industrial policies, particularly for sectors like manufacturing that show potential for import substitution.
Fiscal authorities gain better visibility into the informal sector’s scale, informing strategies to broaden the tax base without stifling grassroots economic activity. International investors now access more reliable benchmarks for sectoral allocation decisions, particularly in fast-growing services sub-sectors like ICT and financial services. However, the revised figures also highlight vulnerabilities – particularly agriculture’s weak growth despite employing over 35% of the workforce, and manufacturing’s inability to capitalise on Africa Continental Free Trade Area opportunities due to competitiveness issues.
Looking ahead, the NBS plans to incorporate additional methodological refinements in future rebasing cycles. These include developing satellite accounts for the digital economy, implementing more frequent labour force surveys, and capturing climate change adaptation costs in national accounting.
The bureau also aims to strengthen subnational data collection to address significant disparities between states’ economic performance – currently obscured in national aggregates. As Adeniran noted, these continuous improvements aim to position Nigeria’s statistical system among Africa’s most advanced by 2030, supporting evidence-based policymaking for sustainable development. While the rebased figures don’t immediately change Nigeria’s economic realities, they provide a clearer baseline for measuring progress toward critical development goals, from poverty reduction to industrialisation and beyond.
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