By Stephen Osariemhen
Nigeria’s ambitious goal of growing its economy from $243 billion to $1 trillion by 2030 is a daunting task that requires more than just ambition; it demands strategic focus on key sectors capable of generating massive growth. Central to this vision are the aviation and banking industries, whose fates are deeply intertwined, alongside the bold policy directives needed to unlock their potential.
The recent emergence of Enugu Air, financed by Fidelity Bank Plc, is not merely a news item but a symbol of a replicable model for national development. This partnership echoes the bank’s successful backing of Air Peace, which grew from a single aircraft in 2014 to West and Central Africa’s largest carrier with over fifty-one aircraft, creating 50,000 jobs and operating international flights to Europe, Asia, and the Caribbean. This synergy between targeted banking support and a liberalised aviation policy under Minister Festus Keyamo offers a tangible blueprint for how Nigeria can approach other capital-intensive sectors.
The historical context is crucial. Nigeria has executed such transformative economic shifts before. In the telecoms sector, coordinated policy reforms—from Decree 75 of 1992 to the Nigerian Communications Act of 2003—catapulted the nation from 400,000 fixed phone lines in 1999 to 172.9 million phone users today, with the sector’s contribution to GDP jumping from 3.08% in 2001 to 17% in 2024. Similarly, reforms in the banking sector, including the BOFIA Decree of 1991 and the 2005 consolidation, enabled the rise of institutions like Fidelity Bank, which now supports high-risk, capital-intensive ventures. The lesson is clear: coherent and courageous policy creates an environment where private enterprise can thrive, leading to job creation, technological adoption, and significant GDP contribution. The current challenge is to apply this same formula deliberately to aviation, and subsequently, to other sectors like maritime.
However, the aviation sector’s potential is currently undercut by significant headwinds. Despite being a testament to market-driven solutions—contributing approximately $1.7 billion to GDP according to FAAN’s Managing Director, Olubunmi Kuku—the sector is contracting. It recorded a 0.81% decline in the first quarter of 2025, its sixth consecutive quarterly fall, while passenger figures have dropped by 27% since 2024. This contradiction highlights a critical vulnerability: the government earns more revenue from taxes and levies on airlines than the airlines themselves earn from operations. With public debt at $97 billion and a debt-to-revenue ratio of 65%, the government lacks the funds to prop up the sector. This makes sustainable private financing not just preferable but essential for survival and growth.
Minister Keyamo’s policy framework appears to recognise this reality, focusing on three strategic pillars: ensuring sustainable financing, developing domestic aviation manufacturing, and leveraging economic diplomacy. The most critical of these is financing. The current proposal involves working with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to negotiate single-digit lending rates specifically for aviation and aerospace companies. This would not be an ad hoc intervention but a sustained policy approved by the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee, designed to provide the long-term certainty required for massive capital projects. The potential is enormous. The global aerospace parts manufacturing market was valued at $966.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $1.485 trillion by 2033. Nigerian companies like Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (IVM), which already manufactures spares for Nigerian Air Force jets, could tap into this market with the right policy direction, similar to how U.S. policy enabled Boeing’s dual development in civil and defence aviation.
Furthermore, Keyamo’s liberal policy disposition is already yielding results. His role in securing Nigeria’s adoption of the Cape Town Convention practice direction in September 2024 enables airlines to lease aircraft on more affordable terms. He also approved innovative operational models, allowing new carriers like Enugu Air and Cally Air to commence operations using the Air Operator Certificates of established airlines like XE Jet and ValueJet while they undergo their own five-phase certification. This pragmatic approach reduces the barrier to entry, fosters competition, and quickly increases market activity. His economic diplomacy as Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Banjul Accord Group is also crucial, exemplified by the deal making XE Jet the technical partner for Sierra Leone’s new national carrier, Air Sierra Leone—a move that generates foreign exchange and exports Nigerian technical expertise.
The same model of policy-enabled banking specialization must now be aggressively applied to the maritime sector, which presents an even larger economic opportunity. Over 80% of global goods are transported by sea, and the UN estimates the annual value of the ocean economy at between $3 trillion and $6 trillion. Yet, Nigeria is missing out. The recent instance of the Dangote Refinery preferring Angolan ships over Nigerian vessels for its operations is a stark indicator of failure. The root cause is a lack of funding. The Cabotage Vessels Financing Fund (CVFF), established in 2003 with an estimated $360-$700 million, has still not been disbursed after two decades. The maximum loan of $25 million per applicant is also insufficient to purchase the large vessels needed for global competitiveness. The proposal is to replace this defunct interventionist model with a sustainable policy akin to that proposed for aviation. A bank with proven experience in transportation finance, like Fidelity, could be strategically engaged to partner with Nigerian companies to acquire large container vessels, tapping into the global maritime trade.
There are already glimpses of potential. The arrival of MV Ocean Dragon in July 2025—the first Nigerian-owned container ship with a capacity of 349 TEUs, owned by Clarion Shipping West Africa—is a watershed moment. The company’s internship programmes for female graduates and its crew that is 70% Nigerian align with national content goals. However, its management has already highlighted funding access as its primary constraint. This underscores the urgent need for a coherent financial policy that enables commercial banks to de-risk these ventures and provide long-term capital.
Reaching a $1 trillion economy requires a 15% annual growth rate, a stark contrast to the current rate below 4%. This will not be achieved through government spending alone but through strategic policy that unlocks private capital and expertise. The synergy between a liberalising aviation minister, a bank willing to finance calculated risks, and entrepreneurs daring enough to build airlines and shipping lines provides the formula. By learning from the successes in telecoms and banking, and now aviation, Nigeria must craft a definitive policy that empowers its financial institutions to become specialised engines of growth in capital-intensive sectors.
The ascent is steep, but the blueprint is there. It requires bold policy, specialised banking, and a relentless focus on turning sectors like aviation and maritime into pillars of a new, complex, and trillion-dollar economy.
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