Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its downward trend in October 2025, easing to 16.84%, according to a recent projection by the Economic Intelligence Unit of Access Bank Plc.
This represents a notable decline from the 18.02% recorded in September, marking a drop of 1.18 percentage points.
The report, which applied an autoregressive model using lags of the composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) and survey-based inflation expectations, forecasts a moderation in inflationary pressures in the near term.
It attributes this positive development to sustained exchange rate stability and improved food supplies resulting from the ongoing harvest season.
In month-on-month terms, the Consumer Price Index is projected to increase by 2.1 points, rising to 129.8 points in October 2025 from the previous month’s level.
This latest data indicates the second consecutive month of disinflation, reinforcing analyst expectations that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary policy stance and seasonal agricultural output are beginning to yield measurable effects on price stability.
The continued decline offers cautious optimism for households and businesses that have faced persistent cost-of-living pressures and elevated operating expenses.
Economic observers note that if the current trends in forex stability and domestic agricultural production continue, inflation could maintain its downward trajectory through the final quarter of 2025, potentially providing room for moderated monetary policy in the coming months.
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