Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 15.38% in March, Ending Months of Decline

By George OPARA

Nigeria’s economy recorded a setback as inflation rate rose marginally to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, ending a steady downward trend that had lasted several months.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed this data on Wednesday, showing that the latest figure is higher than the 15.06 per cent recorded in February. This marginal rise breaks a streak of declines that had offered some relief to Africa’s largest economy.

However, when compared to March 2025, when inflation stood at 27.35 per cent, the current rate still indicates a significant easing in year-on-year terms.

But while the annual figure suggests moderation, a closer appraisal of monthly data tells a different story. On a month-on-month basis, inflation surged to 4.18 per cent in March, more than double the 2.01 per cent recorded in February. This indicates that the general price level rose more sharply within a single month.

Consistent with this trend, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in the average price of goods and services, rose to 135.4 in March from 130.0 the previous month.

Further analysis of the data indicates that core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, stood at 16.21 per cent year-on-year in March. Although this is lower than the 27.12 per cent recorded in the same period last year, it remains slightly above the headline rate, suggesting that underlying price pressures persist across the economy. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose by 4.03 per cent, up sharply from 0.89 per cent in February.

The data also reveals a widening gap between urban and rural inflation. While urban inflation stood at 14.64 per cent year-on-year, rural inflation was higher at 17.22 per cent, indicating that price pressures remain more intense in rural areas. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation hiked significantly to 6.73 per cent, compared to 3.16 per cent recorded in urban centres.

The NBS figures suggest that although inflation has slowed greatly in relation to last year, the recent rise in monthly prices points to lingering cost pressures. For households, while inflation appears to be easing on paper, the daily reality of rising prices is still very apparent.