The Federal Executive Council on Wednesday approved Nigeria’s Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2026 to 2028, setting a conservative oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a budget exchange rate of ₦1,512 to the US dollar for the 2026 fiscal year.
The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, disclosed this to State House correspondents after the Council’s meeting in Abuja.
He stated that the framework, which outlines a federal spending envelope of roughly ₦54.43 trillion for 2026, will be transmitted to the National Assembly by Monday, December 8.
Bagudu explained the government’s cautious parameters, noting the adopted oil benchmark is deliberately lower than Nigeria’s typical earnings from its premium Bonny Light crude. “For an abundance of caution, we are using $64.85,” he said.
Similarly, the framework proposes two oil production targets: an ambitious 2.06 million barrels per day target for the industry and a more conservative 1.80 million barrels per day for budget calculations to avoid revenue shortfalls.
The minister outlined key macro assumptions, including a projected economic growth rate of 4.68 per cent for 2026. He acknowledged that the pre-election year could affect the exchange rate due to typical election-related spending.
According to the framework, gross Federation revenue for 2026 is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion, with the Federal Government’s share projected at ₦22.60 trillion. Total Federal Government revenue from all sources, including remittances from government-owned enterprises, is expected to be about ₦34.33 trillion.
Major expenditure heads include ₦15.91 trillion for debt service and approximately ₦15.27 trillion for non-debt recurrent costs like personnel and pensions. The projected deficit of ₦20.10 trillion represents about 3.61 per cent of the estimated GDP.
Bagudu confirmed that the draft framework integrates inputs from ministries, the private sector, civil society, and development partners. He also disclosed that President Bola Tinubu has secured the National Economic Council’s buy-in for tighter policy coordination and priority spending on security and infrastructure.
The MTEF/FSP is the statutory three-year fiscal guide that will underpin the forthcoming 2026 Appropriation Bill.
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