By Eshioromeh Sebastian
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has officially received three presidential aspirants, Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, and Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, who have obtained their nomination forms ahead of the party’s May 23 presidential primary, even as deep internal cracks continue to threaten the opposition coalition.
Hayatu-Deen, a renowned economist from Borno State, was the first to pick up his forms on May 7, 2026, at the ADC National Secretariat in Abuja. He was closely followed by Atiku, the former Vice President, and Amaechi, the former Rivers State Governor and ex-Minister of Transportation, who both completed the process on May 8.
The party fixed the presidential nomination form at N90 million, with the sale period running from May 6 to May 13, 2026. The ADC has scheduled its presidential primary for May 23, followed by a Special National Convention on May 26 .
However, beneath the surface of this gathering of political heavyweights lie significant legal and structural challenges that have already forced two major opposition figures, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, to abandon the platform for the newly formed Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Atiku Abubakar, who will be 80 years old by the 2027 election, has described this bid as his final attempt at the presidency . In an interview with ARISE TV, the former Vice President promised that this would be his last throw of the dice, proposing to serve only one term before supporting a power shift back to the South in 2031 .
His chances: Atiku brings formidable northern political infrastructure and has consistently polled over 4.8 million votes from the north in the last two election cycles . He has also boasted publicly that he has never failed to secure a presidential ticket whenever he sought one, a statement that has raised concerns among rival camps about the fairness of any future primary contest .
However, analysts point to a significant obstacle: zoning. After eight years of Muhammadu Buhari from the North, many Nigerians, including opposition supporters, believe the South should complete its eight-year turn under President Bola Tinubu before power rotates back north. Atiku’s insistence on running despite these sentiments could fracture the opposition .
In a revealing exchange, when asked about the South completing its turn, Atiku reportedly said the South has been in power longer than the North since 1999, a position critics say calls into question his professed commitment to power rotation .
Rotimi Amaechi, who came second to Tinubu in the APC presidential primary in 2022 — outscoring then-Vice President Prof Yemi Osinbajo — brings a different set of credentials . His political journey spans roles as State Speaker, Governor of Rivers State, Chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum, and Minister of Transportation.
His chances: Amaechi is widely regarded as a formidable political operator with bridges (and railways) across the country. Unlike the vociferous online presence of Obi’s supporters, Amaechi’s strength lies in quiet, entrenched political networks that could prove decisive in a delegate-driven primary .
Crucially, Amaechi is from the South, positioning him favourably should the ADC resolve its zoning ambiguity in favour of southern candidacy. His name recognition and political war chest make him a serious contender who cannot be dismissed as a “political Lilliputian,” as some have attempted to portray him .
Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, first to pick up his nomination forms, has been quietly building a nationwide structure. He recently inaugurated 36 State Coordinators at his campaign office in Abuja, signaling a transition to full-scale grassroots mobilisation .
His chances: Hayatu-Deen brings decades of experience as an economist, banker, investor, and corporate leader. He has pledged to unveil governance ideas focused on massive job creation, reducing living costs, tackling insecurity, and lifting millions from poverty .
His central promise is ambitious: “reduce poverty by at least 60 per cent within four years” . Addressing concerns about competing against political heavyweights, Hayatu-Deen expressed confidence in his vision: “I have spent decades fixing broken institutions, creating jobs and advising governments. I believe I have the vision and competence to govern Nigeria responsibly” .
However, he lacks the national political machinery of Atiku or Amaechi. His campaign acknowledges this, with his National Coordinator describing the inauguration of state coordinators as a shift “from vision to structured national mobilisation” .
Legal Landmines Awaiting the ADC
Beyond the internal contest among aspirants, the ADC faces existential legal threats that have already spooked other opposition figures.
Deregistration Threat
Only days before the form collection began, the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), reportedly argued before a Federal High Court in Abuja that political parties without significant electoral victories should not continue to exist .
Fagbemi’s submission came in a suit seeking the deregistration of four political parties, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Action Alliance (AA), Accord Party, Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), and Action Peoples Party (APP) . Although the matter remains before the court, the development has intensified concerns about the long-term stability and legal vulnerability of smaller opposition platforms ahead of 2027 .
As one analysis noted: “Whether or not such legal arguments ultimately succeed is beside the point. The message is clear: smaller opposition parties may increasingly face legal and institutional pressure ahead of 2027” .
Leadership Crisis Beneath the Surface
Although the Supreme Court recently affirmed the Senator David Mark-led leadership of the ADC, the crisis within the party remains far from resolved. Beneath the temporary appearance of unity are deep tensions over leadership control, zoning arrangements, presidential ambition, and the future direction of the opposition coalition .
The party has also had to publicly distance itself from “purported plans by some individuals to convene congresses in certain states,” indicating lingering fractures in its organisational structure .
Zoning Ambiguity
Perhaps the most immediate landmine is the party’s failure to provide clarity on zoning. The ADC leadership has so far remained silent on whether its presidential ticket will be zoned to the North or South — a critical decision that could determine which of the three aspirants gains an advantage .
Atiku’s camp appears confident. But as one political observer noted, “silence on such a critical issue naturally breeds suspicion and uncertainty among aspirants and supporters alike” . This ambiguity has been cited as one of the reasons Obi and Kwankwaso chose to exit.
The departures of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the ADC-led coalition have dealt a severe blow to opposition unity hopes, with both men citing legal wrangles and internal divisions as grounds for their exit .
In a statement seen by Reuters, Obi, the southern politician who energised young voters in 2023, said he left over “endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division” within the ADC . Kwankwaso, an influential northern politician, also exited, with both men joining another opposition grouping, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) .
The alliance had agreed on April 25, 2026, to back a single presidential candidate, aiming to deny President Tinubu the advantage of a divided opposition field in the January 2027 election . That agreement, known as the Ibadan Declaration, is now in jeopardy.
ADC spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi acknowledged the blow: “Under the present circumstances that we find ourselves in, the Ibadan Declaration, which canvassed a single presidential candidate from these willing participating parties, will have to be reviewed” .
Deeper Reasons for the Exodus
Beyond the stated reasons, analysts point to several deeper factors that drove Obi and Kwankwaso away:
Fear of a Monetised Primary: Many Obi supporters fear that a heavily monetised primary process could favour older establishment politicians with deeper political networks and stronger financial machinery. With the nomination form alone costing N90 million, the barrier to entry is steep .
Zoning Concerns: Southern politicians and voters believe another northern candidacy in 2027 could fracture the opposition. With Atiku in the race, that prospect became real . Obi, from the South, and his supporters have consistently argued that power should remain in the South to complete its eight-year turn.
The Obi-Kwankwaso Alliance Option: Obi’s alignment with the NDC alongside Kwankwaso presents a powerful alternative. A possible Obi-Kwankwaso ticket would combine Obi’s strong support among urban youths, southern voters, and the middle class with Kwankwaso’s deep northern grassroots appeal from his Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano and the North-West . Such an alliance could help reduce the regional and ethnic divisions that weakened the opposition in 2023.
Personal Rivalries: The history between these political figures runs deep. During the 2023 election cycle, Kwankwaso openly dismissed suggestions that he could serve as Obi’s running mate, arguing that his political experience and achievements made him more qualified to lead a presidential ticket . Those disagreements contributed to the collapse of alliance talks between the Labour Party and the NNPP before the 2023 election .
The Fallout: A Fractured Opposition
The departures have drawn sharp criticism from the presidency. Bayo Onanuga, spokesperson for President Tinubu, wrote on X: “The political nomad is on the move again. Ignore all those puerile reasons he gave in these illogical musings, a self-serving letter to his mob. Peter Obi is a politician made of jelly, an opportunistic fellow. He can’t fight Atiku or Amaechi for the ticket of ADC” .
More significantly, political analysts warn that the fragmentation could hand Tinubu a second term. Cheta Nwanze, a partner at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence, told Reuters: “The feared scenario has materialised: a fractured opposition that will cannibalise its own votes” .
Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with about 35 percent of the vote. Opposition candidates collectively secured roughly 60 percent, a split the ADC-led alliance had hoped to overcome . With Obi and Kwankwaso now in the NDC, and Atiku, Amaechi, and Hayatu-Deen battling for the ADC ticket, that unity is shattered.
The Road Ahead
The ADC now faces a compressed timeline. Primaries for various offices begin May 21, with the presidential primary scheduled for May 23 . Aspirants have until May 13 to submit their completed forms, followed by screening on May 14 and May 15 .
The party’s ability to conduct a transparent, credible primary — and to resolve its zoning ambiguity — will determine whether it can emerge as a unified force or collapse under the weight of its internal contradictions.
For now, the ADC finds itself as a temporary shelter for political heavyweights in exile. Whether this translates into a genuine third force or merely another chapter in Nigeria’s complicated opposition politics remains to be seen.
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