Eshioromeh Sebastian
The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has officially zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to Southern Nigeria, a decision endorsed by former Kano State Governor Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who described the move as an opportunity for “true national healing.”
The announcement was made on Saturday during the party’s national convention in Abuja, where Kwankwaso delivered a speech invoking Nigeria’s history of visionary political alliances.
The zoning decision effectively clears the path for former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, who formally joined the NDC alongside Kwankwaso just days ago, to emerge as the party’s presidential candidate .
Speaking at the convention, Kwankwaso drew parallels between the NDC’s current realignment and historic coalitions, including the 1960 partnership between Nnamdi Azikiwe’s NCNC and the Northern People’s Congress that birthed Nigeria’s independence, as well as the NPN alliance in the Second Republic that restored civilian rule.
“Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads.The world is undergoing a profound geopolitical shift, yet our nation has been caught unprepared, largely because of poor leadership. Instead of positioning Nigeria to seize emerging opportunities, bad governance has left us bearing the brunt of global changes,” Kwankeaso told the delegates.
The former governor criticised the sharp decline in the quality of life under the current administration, noting that insecurity has “created widows and orphans across the land” while investments flee and critical infrastructure remains neglected.
The NDC confirmed the zoning decision via its official X handle, posting: “NDC Presidential ticket is zoned to the South!!” . According to convention proceedings, the zoning arrangement provides for a single four-year term for the Southern candidate, after which the ticket will automatically revert to the North .
The motion was moved by Afam Victor Ogene, a House of Representatives member representing Ogbaru Constituency in Anambra State, and was adopted by delegates at the convention .
Buba Galadima, a close ally of Kwankwaso, had disclosed the party’s zoning position earlier in the week during an appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today, stating that the NDC was also set to submit its membership register to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) .
“Once we do that, we are good to go,” Galadima said, adding that the party would conduct primaries rather than impose a consensus candidate .
Obi and Kwankwaso were formally received into the NDC on Sunday at the party’s national headquarters in Abuja by Senator Seriake Dickson, former Bayelsa State governor and the party’s national leader .
Both men had previously been members of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), alongside former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, but exited the coalition following internal disagreements and legal battles over party leadership .
“The same Nigerian state and its agents that created unnecessary crises and hostility within the Labour Party that forced me to leave now appear to be finding their way into the ADC,” Obi said during his unveiling, explaining his decision to exit the coalition .
Kwankwaso similarly cited the need for stability, noting that the Supreme Court’s recent ruling had left the ADC in “a precarious position” . He said wide-ranging consultations had been conducted with leaders from the NDC and other parties “to explore the best options for protecting our democratic interests” .
Political arithmetic and 2027 prospects
The emerging Obi-Kwankwaso alliance has fundamentally reshaped Nigeria’s opposition landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election. In the 2023 election, Obi secured approximately 6.1 million votes as the Labour Party candidate, while Kwankwaso polled roughly 1.5 million votes on the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) platform . Combined, both candidates attracted more than 7.6 million votes against President Bola Tinubu’s approximately 8.8 million .
Political analyst Bala Yusuf told the BBC that the move could reshape Nigeria’s electoral landscape. “If the NDC fields Obi as its presidential candidate and Kwankwaso as vice-president, they will definitely give the ruling APC a run for their money at the polls,” he said .
However, Professor Ernest Ereke cautioned that the opposition risks repeating the vote-splitting scenario of 2023, which allowed Tinubu to win with just 37 percent—the lowest winning share since the return of democracy in 1999.
Nevertheless, Ereke noted that “looking at the socio-political situation of the country under President Tinubu,” conditions had shifted significantly since the last election. “If Obi and Kwankwaso are able to hold their bases together, they may likely cause an upset,” he told the BBC .
Support base realignment
The alliance has already triggered significant political movement, with several senators and House of Representatives members defecting to the NDC. Among them is Senator Victor Umeh, who cited instability and litigation within the ADC as major reasons for his decision .
The Kwankwasiyya Movement, Kwankwaso’s influential northern political base, has publicly endorsed the alliance and the decision to support a Southern candidate.
Habibu Muhammed, spokesperson for the movement, said at a coalition meeting in Abuja that members had “agreed that there is a need to consider other parts of the country, which we all agree is fair” .
Similarly, the Coalition of Atiku Support Groups Initiative has called on the former vice-president to support Obi’s presidential ambition, with National Coordinator Obinna Okorie stating that the decision followed an assessment of the country’s political climate .
Not all reactions have been favourable. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, Obi’s former running mate in the 2023 Labour Party campaign, has questioned the viability of the Obi-Kwankwaso alliance. Speaking to journalists after his own defection to the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Baba-Ahmed said: “It is very unlikely that the north will rally around Obi and Kwankwaso” .
He also raised questions about Kwankwaso’s political posture during the 2023 elections, asking: “Why didn’t Kwankwaso support Peter Obi in 2022/23? What changed between 2022 and 2023?” .
Baba-Ahmed further warned that leadership dynamics could complicate a joint ticket, noting that Kwankwaso is older than Obi in age, education, and political profile. “This is somebody with a burning ambition and temperament. Who is going to be the president, actually?” he asked .
The ADC has also pushed back against the defections. National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi acknowledged the loss of “two significant politicians” but insisted the move was not “a mortal blow” to the party’s ambition . He alleged that Obi was merely seeking a “special purpose vehicle” to contest the presidency in 2027, adding that “it’s premeditated. It didn’t just happen last Saturday” .
Presidency reaction
The Nigerian presidency has downplayed the significance of the defections, suggesting they reflect “the normal fluidity of democratic politics” rather than any fundamental shift in the political landscape. A presidential spokesperson said: “Political alliances will come and go. But our priority is delivering economic reforms, improving security and ensuring stability for all Nigerians” .
President Tinubu is widely expected to seek a second term in 2027, although he has not yet formally confirmed his candidacy. His supporters have already paid the 100 million naira (approximately £52,000) fee required to obtain the nomination form for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) primaries .
Looking ahead
The NDC has signalled that primaries will be conducted to determine its presidential candidate, with the southern zoning decision now firmly in place. In his convention speech, Kwankwaso emphasised that the party would prioritise “leadership without ethnic jingoism and religious favouritism” and called on Nigerians to register with INEC to vote.
“We shall work in abidance with the party’s agreement to ensure fairness and federal character in all ramifications,” Kwankwaso said. “The leadership standard we shall set will restore Nigeria’s dignity and will guarantee that our citizens at home and in the diaspora will be treated with respect and dignity.”
As the 2027 election cycle gathers momentum, the political realignment, bringing together the “Obidient” movement’s youth-driven southern base and the populist Kwankwasiyya northern network, presents a formidable challenge to the ruling APC, though questions of ticket configuration and internal cohesion remain unresolved.
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