By EMAMEH GABRIEL
The recent silence from Peter Obi following the Supreme Court judgment on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) leadership crisis speaks volumes. For a man who built a political movement around constant communication and moral authority, the absence of any reaction is not merely an oversight. It points to a deeper discomfort, a realisation that the political terrain he once dominated has shifted beneath his feet. The ADC, which he joined with much fanfare as a vehicle for 2027, is proving to be a house divided against itself, and Obi appears to be watching from the sidelines as the walls close in.
The reality is that Obi has no strategic pathway to securing the ADC presidential ticket. Even his former running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, cast doubt on this possibility months ago, asserting that entrenched interests within the coalition would never simply hand over the crown. And he was right. The ADC is not the Labour Party of 2023, a relatively open field that Obi could walk into and claim. This is a party filled with political heavyweights who have spent decades mastering the game of delegate politics.
The battle for the soul of the ADC has always been between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, and Atiku is fighting as if his entire legacy depends on it. This is because it does. For Atiku, after a lifetime of presidential bids, the former vice president has declared that 2027 will be his final dance. A man with nothing to lose is a dangerous opponent, and Atiku has spent years cultivating the kind of deep-state political networks that Obi simply does not possess. Atiku is not just seeking a ticket; he is seeking validation.
Obi, on the other hand, is playing a different, more complicated game. The former Anambra State governor is pushing for a one-term presidency, a promise to return power to the North after just four years. He is trying to sell this proposition to northern leaders as the only fair deal: support a southern candidate now, and the presidency comes back to you in 2031.
There is also talk of pairing him with Rabiu Kwankwaso as his running mate, a so-called ‘northern powerhouse’ ticket that would supposedly bridge regional divides. But this is pure fantasy. Kwankwaso is not a man who settles for vice-president without a Greek Gift. He commands his own political empire in Kano and beyond. The idea that he would quietly accept the number two slot and take orders from Obi for four years is laughable. Kwankwaso will demand his own shot, and the moment he does, Obi’s one-term promise to the North collapses. You cannot serve two masters.
The truth that many of Obi’s supporters refuse to see is that the ground has shifted beneath them. The movement that carried him in 2023 is broken. Look at the South West, apart from Governor Makinde, every governor in that zone has thrown their weight behind the ruling party. The entire South South, once considered opposition territory, is now completely controlled by the APC. Even in the South East, Obi’s own backyard, the situation has turned against him. Three states in the zone, Imo, Ebonyi, and Enugu, are now governed by the APC, not to mention Anambra where Governor Chukwuma Soludo and his APGA machinery have openly endorsed Tinubu. In Abia, Labour Party’s only sitting governor, Alex Otti, is widely expected to work for the same ruling party. The APC may not yet control the entire South East the way it controls the South South or South West, but the governors are in place, the endorsements are rolling in, and the region is no longer the safe fortress Obi once assumed it would be.
Moreover, the mere presence of Rotimi Amaechi in the ADC primary complicates the southern agenda further. If the party opts for a direct primary, Amaechi is more than capable of splitting the southern delegate vote, making it impossible for Obi to consolidate a winning bloc. Amaechi has the financial muscle, the organisational structure, and the sheer tenacity to force a chaotic primary. And even if the consensus route is pursued, the party elders are far more likely to rally around a candidate like Atiku or Amaechi than Obi.
Obi’s silence on the Supreme Court judgment is therefore not a mystery. It is the quiet of a man who knows the numbers do not add up. He did not celebrate the Ibadan Declaration, and now he is refusing to acknowledge a legal victory that effectively legitimises a party leadership that does not answer to him. He is standing outside the room where the real decisions are being made.
The tragedy of Peter Obi is that he has reduced himself to a spoiler. The energy and hope he commanded in 2023 has no structure, no enduring network, and no clear strategy for victory. He is fighting for a ticket that cannot fly. The Obidients may continue to make noise, but noise does not win primaries. Delegates do. And right now, the delegates are not with him. They have moved on.
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