By Eshioromeh Sebastian
The National Youth Leader of the All Progressives Congress, Dr. Dayo Israel, has cautioned that the party risks repeating its Osun State electoral defeat on a national scale in 2027 unless it confronts deep-seated structural and strategic weaknesses exposed by the recent governorship poll.
In a post-mortem assessment of the July 15 election, Israel said the APC’s loss to incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke should not be dismissed as a routine off-cycle setback but treated as a critical warning sign for the party’s national ambitions.
Adeleke of the Accord Party secured re-election with 511,067 votes, defeating APC’s Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes, a difference Israel described as “substantial enough to demand honest reflection.”
Israel identified three key figures whose roles shaped the election’s outcome, offering rare praise for President Bola Tinubu’s conduct during the process.
He commended the President for refusing to deploy federal power to tilt the contest in the APC’s favour, noting that state institutions, security agencies, and other instruments of federal might remained largely neutral throughout the electioneering.
According to Israel, that restraint represents statesmanship and reinforces the credibility of Nigeria’s democratic process, even when the outcome is unfavourable to the ruling party.
However, he argued that Governor Adeleke’s victory was not accidental but the result of a campaign that understood the cultural and emotional pulse of Osun voters.
Israel cautioned that political elites who dismissed Adeleke as merely a “dancing governor” fundamentally misread the electoral landscape.
He explained that the governor’s public performances, accessibility, and religious visibility were not frivolous distractions but deliberate political tools that humanised him and forged emotional connections with ordinary citizens.
Israel cited former Osun governors Bisi Akande and Rauf Aregbesola as earlier examples of politicians who successfully deployed cultural identification to build loyal followings.
The APC youth leader also pointed to the role of international music star David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido, whose active participation in the campaign brought youthful energy, digital reach, and cultural credibility to the opposition’s mobilisation efforts.
Israel said Davido did not serve as a mere ceremonial figure but was strategically positioned at the centre of youth outreach, alongside other young professionals and influencers.
He then posed a challenging question to his party: “Who are the Davidos in the APC?”
Beyond analysing the opposition’s strengths, Israel turned a critical lens inward, accusing the APC of sidelining its own constitutional structures while relying on last-minute, ad-hoc campaign arrangements.
He disclosed that the National Youth Wing was largely excluded from the Osun campaign planning, despite his personal outreach offering support. According to Israel, when he volunteered to assist, he was directed to an intermediary who promised to return his call — but that communication never materialised.
He also revealed that the National Working Committee did not convene a single formal meeting to review strategy or assess progress after the campaign council was inaugurated — a gap he described as a “strategic weakness” rather than a minor administrative oversight.
Israel decried what he called a pattern of treating the youth and women’s wings as decorative elements rather than mobilisation engines. He insisted that these organs represent real constituencies that must be organised, empowered, and deployed deliberately during elections.
On the subject of rallies, he argued that many APC events have devolved into ceremonial gatherings dominated by speeches from governors and national figures, with little meaningful engagement of grassroots mobilisers, cultural performers, or local leaders who actually speak the language of the streets.
He noted that even prominent cultural figures like King Wasiu Ayinde Marshal were reportedly confined to pre-programme entertainment rather than integrated into core political messaging — a missed opportunity, in his view.
Israel stressed that elections are won in communities, markets, campuses, places of worship, and motor parks, not in the comfort of elite discourse in Abuja.
While acknowledging the efforts of party members who invested time and resources in the campaign, Israel said the outcome should trigger introspection rather than finger-pointing.
He called for genuine reconciliation within the party’s ranks, warning that internal division and fragmented mobilisation had undermined the APC’s efforts in Osun — just as they did in 2022.
According to him, the party cannot afford to continue with a “to your tents, O Israel” approach, where aggrieved members retreat into factions. He urged the APC to embrace political addition, including the possibility of opening conversations with Governor Adeleke, noting that yesterday’s opponents can become tomorrow’s allies.
Looking ahead to 2027, Israel recommended that campaign councils be established early, adequately funded, assigned clear deliverables, and held strictly accountable. He also called for the identification and empowerment of young communicators, creatives, digital influencers, campus leaders, and women mobilisers who can genuinely connect with key demographics.
He concluded that the APC must choose between learning from Osun’s bitter lesson or risking a more painful outcome at the national level.
“President Tinubu gave us a democratic contest. Governor Adeleke understood his people. Davido understood his generation,” Israel said. “The question is whether the APC understands its own lesson.”
He added: “Silence will not win 2027. Osun has spoken. The APC must now listen.”
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