By James Adamu
A professor of Economics at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Tunji Ogunyemi, has issued a stark warning that the restoration of petrol subsidy would plunge at least 15 northern states into total economic collapse within three months.
The don, who spoke on the Open Forum 360 podcast hosted by Dare Adekanmbi, described the proposal by presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, to return to the subsidy regime as “calamitous” and a direct threat to Nigeria’s fiscal stability.
Ogunyemi argued that reversing the current subsidy removal would severely deplete revenue accruals to the Federation Account, which he described as the “jugular” of more than 30 states in the country.
“The Federation Account is the jugular of more than 30 states in the federation. Only about four states in Nigeria can survive without the Federation Account,” he stated.
He specifically listed Lagos, Delta, and Rivers as the only states capable of withstanding the shock of reduced federal allocations. In contrast, he cited Taraba as a classic example of a state that is entirely dependent on monthly disbursements from Abuja to fund its operations.
“So if you now say reduce the accrual from account, I tell you more than about 15 states in the north will collapse. They will collapse within three months,” Ogunyemi warned.
The professor further outlined a cascade of four “disabilities” that would follow a subsidy return, including a return to widespread salary arrears, a freeze on capital projects, and a potential sovereign debt default.
“States will return to a regime of incapacity to pay salaries, let alone pensions. And Nigeria will not be able to meet its debt obligations,” he added, noting that such a default would damage the country’s creditworthiness on the global stage.
Ogunyemi also took a swipe at Atiku’s proposal, suggesting the former Vice President was “playing to the gallery” in a bid to garner political support.
“You don’t want to get political support through votes or more votes by wanting to cut the jugular of your country,” the professor said, urging the ADC candidate to be less “opaque” about the real-world implications of his policy promises.
Atiku Abubakar, who recently emerged as the presidential flagbearer of the ADC, had earlier stated that restoring fuel subsidy would be a priority if he wins the 2027 election.
However, Ogunyemi’s warning aligns with the stance of fiscal policy experts who argue that sustaining the current deregulation is critical for Nigeria’s long-term economic survival, despite the immediate hardship on citizens.
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