South-West Will Decide 2027 Presidential Election Winner – Report

By Eshioromeh Sebastian

The South-West, President Bola Tinubu’s home region, is projected to be the decisive factor in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, according to the inaugural Nigeria 2027 Voter Sentiment Tracker released by SBM Intelligence.

The report identifies the zone as the nation’s key electoral battleground, pointing to its significant share of undecided voters, low turnout intentions, and status as the only region where the ruling All Progressives Congress maintains a substantial support base.

The survey, conducted in the third week of May 2026, covered 829 eligible voters across eight states and the Federal Capital Territory through face-to-face interviews in markets, schools, viewing centres, and hotels.

According to the report, while the opposition National Democratic Congress leads national vote intention, the South-West remains the nation’s most competitive political space. The NDC currently commands 45 per cent support in the region, while the APC trails with 22 per cent.

Crucially, 23 per cent of South-West respondents remain undecided – the highest proportion among all geopolitical zones.

The region also recorded the lowest high-turnout intention nationally at just 44 per cent, significantly trailing figures from the South-East, South-South and North-West.

Analysts argue that the combination of voter apathy and a large undecided bloc makes the South-West the ultimate swing region. Unlike the South-East and South-South, where opposition support appears firmly entrenched, the South-West remains fluid, with a sizeable electorate yet to commit.

The report further notes that the South-West remains President Tinubu’s strongest political base and the only zone where the APC retains meaningful electoral backing.

However, survey findings indicate the president’s popularity has eroded even in his home region, with net favourability ratings in the South-West putting him behind opposition figures.

The survey paints a bleak picture of national sentiment, with 79.8 per cent of respondents believing Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction. Dissatisfaction peaked in the South-East at 92.2 per cent, followed by the North-Central at 90.1 per cent and the South-South at 89 per cent.

Insecurity and terrorism emerged as the most pressing concerns, with 45 per cent of respondents ranking them as their top priority.

The administration’s performance across five policy areas – inflation, taxation, security, jobs, and power – received ratings below “poor” in every zone except the North-West.

President Tinubu recorded a net favourability score of minus 58.5 nationally, the weakest among all candidates assessed. By contrast, Peter Obi posted a net score of plus 58.3, making him the only major candidate with a positive national rating.

Turnout as Decisive Factor

SBM Intelligence cautions that public dissatisfaction alone may not determine the election outcome, noting that voter turnout could prove decisive.

Under a low-turnout scenario, NDC support falls to 31.7 per cent nationally. However, under a high-turnout scenario, the coalition’s support could surge to 64.9 per cent, suggesting opposition fortunes depend heavily on voter mobilisation.

Regions with the strongest turnout intentions include the South-East at 87.4 per cent, the South-South at 82.9 per cent, and the North-West at 82.4 per cent.

The report describes the North-East as the only other zone where the outcome remains open – but for different reasons. Unlike the South-West’s indecision, the North-East is fragmented, with support split among the NDC, APC and ADC, and 16.4 per cent of voters undecided.

SBM Intelligence concluded: “While the South-West’s uncertainty stems from a Yoruba electorate that has yet to decide whether to defend its president or defect, the North-East’s uncertainty stems from the genuine absence of a dominant opposition figure. Both zones could determine the margin of victory; neither will be won the same way.”

The report emphasises that the survey reflects a snapshot of public opinion rather than an election forecast and should not be weighted against official voter registration data.