Nigeria’s GDP Growth Ticks Up to 4.43%, Signaling Steady Recovery

By Eshioromeh Sebastian

Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.43% in the second quarter of 2026, a noticeable uptick from the 4.23% recorded in the same period last year, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday.

The latest figures surpassed market expectations, with analysts having projected a more modest 4.20% growth rate. It also marks the strongest second-quarter performance since 2021, building on the 3.89% growth seen in Q1 2026 and signalling that the economy is sustaining its recovery momentum.

The non-oil sector continued to anchor economic activity, contributing about 96% of total GDP. Telecommunications and financial services remained key drivers, while construction also held steady amid ongoing infrastructure projects across the country.

But the oil sector delivered a pleasant surprise. Crude production rose to 1.56 million barrels per day in June, the highest level in six years, and stayed above the OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels for the second month in a row. That uptick, combined with early gains from domestic refining, gave the overall numbers a solid lift.

Yet beneath the headline figure, concerns linger. Agriculture, trade, and manufacturing — sectors that employ the bulk of Nigeria’s workforce — are growing at a slower clip than capital-intensive industries. That unevenness has raised questions about whether the expansion is translating into better living standards for ordinary citizens.

Inflation remains another sticking point. Consumer prices have edged up to around 15.4%, driven largely by rising global food and fuel costs, which continue to strain household budgets and erode purchasing power. Security challenges in key farming regions have also disrupted food production, adding to supply-side pressures.

For the government, the Q2 numbers offer validation for the reform agenda initiated in 2023. The removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market were painful measures that initially choked growth, but policymakers are now pointing to the data as evidence that those tough calls are beginning to pay off.