Nigeria’s food inflation rate has dropped to single digits for the first time in over a decade, settling at 8.89 per cent in January 2026.
According to the latest inflation report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this marks the lowest point for food inflation since August 2011, when it stood at 8.66 per cent.
The last time Nigerians experienced such a low rate was 14 years ago, signalling a potential turning point for staple food prices.
The NBS attributed the sharp decline to falling prices across several key food items. Consumers are now paying less for water yams, garri, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, and maize grains, all of which contributed to the downward trend.
However, while the news brings relief to households, economic experts have raised concerns about the long-term implications for the agricultural sector. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), in a statement issued on Monday, cautioned that sustained low prices could threaten the viability of farming as a livelihood.
Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, explained that although weaker food prices are gradually restoring consumer purchasing power, they also pose a risk to farmer incomes.
“These indicators suggest the emergence of real disinflation rather than temporary price volatility,” Yusuf said.
He warned that if food prices continue to fall, farmers could face reduced revenues, limiting their ability to invest in future planting seasons. This, in turn, may weaken rural economies and discourage agricultural production, potentially creating supply shortages that reignite inflationary pressure down the line.
“There is a critical need to balance consumer affordability with producer sustainability to safeguard national food security,” he added.
The CPPE also noted that the broader easing of prices—reflected in both food and headline inflation—suggests that disinflation is spreading across multiple sectors of the economy. This trend, according to the body, could influence monetary policy decisions in the coming months, potentially opening the door for a more data-driven approach to interest rate moderation.
While welcoming the positive impact on household budgets, the CPPE urged the government to put in place protective measures for farmers. Recommendations include introducing guaranteed minimum prices for selected crops and expanding agro-processing capacity to absorb excess produce and stabilise farm incomes.
Yusuf added that the January figures indicate more than just seasonal fluctuation. “January outcome is a meaningful transition toward macroeconomic stabilisation. Consolidating the gains while protecting agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods would be critical to achieving durable stability and inclusive growth,” he said.
Headline Inflation Also Eases
Beyond food, the broader inflation picture showed modest improvement. Headline inflation inched down to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, a slight drop from 15.15 per cent recorded in December 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, prices fell by 2.88 per cent in January, a significant improvement from the 0.54 per cent increase recorded in the previous month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) also declined to 127.4 points, down from 131.2 points in December.
The NBS noted that the moderation reflects a slower rate of increase in average price levels compared to the previous month, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures may finally be cooling.
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