Nigeria’s external trade position strengthened considerably during the second quarter of 2026, with the nation posting a merchandise trade surplus of N12.60 trillion, according to official data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The Q2 figure more than doubled the N7.55 trillion surplus recorded in the first three months of the year and represents a significant improvement from the same period in 2025.
Total trade value for the quarter reached N41.44 trillion, reflecting a 5.61 per cent annual increase and a 19.13 per cent rise from the previous quarter.
Exports continued to dominate the trade landscape, accounting for roughly two-thirds of all merchandise transactions at N27.02 trillion. This represents an 18.77 per cent year-on-year increase and a 27.64 per cent quarterly rise. Imports, by contrast, settled at N14.42 trillion—down 12.55 per cent from Q2 2025 but slightly higher than the first quarter of this year.
The surplus was propelled almost entirely by petroleum products, which maintained their stranglehold on Nigeria’s export earnings. Crude oil shipments alone generated N12.91 trillion, representing 47.79 per cent of all exports and posting a 7.93 per cent annual increase.
Other oil products contributed an additional N10.38 trillion, rising 34.08 per cent from the same period last year. Combined, crude and other petroleum exports totalled approximately N23.29 trillion—roughly 86 per cent of Nigeria’s entire export revenue for the quarter.
Mineral products as a category accounted for 87.04 per cent of exports, valued at N23.52 trillion, underscoring the economy’s continued dependence on extractive industries.
While the headline surplus appears encouraging, the data paints a worrying picture for Nigeria’s agricultural sector. Farm produce exports plummeted 36.09 per cent year-on-year to N802.99 billion, down from N1.26 trillion in Q2 2025. The decline was even steeper compared to the first quarter, falling 31.51 per cent from N1.17 trillion.
The situation is compounded by rising agricultural imports, which climbed to N1.20 trillion—up 1.63 per cent annually and 45.43 per cent from Q1 2026. This means Nigeria is exporting fewer farm products while importing more, putting additional strain on the naira and local food production capacity.
Among the agricultural exports that did move, cashew nuts led at N268.62 billion, followed by cocoa beans at N154.31 billion and sesame seeds at N96.03 billion.
The manufacturing sector delivered another disappointing performance, with exports falling to N393.03 billion, a 51.10 per cent collapse from N803.81 billion in the same quarter of 2025. There was some quarterly recovery of 29.87 per cent, but the annual decline remains alarming.
Imports of manufactured goods tell a different story entirely. Nigeria brought in N9.51 trillion worth of manufactured products, an increase of 20.65 per cent from Q2 2025 and 12.10 per cent from the previous quarter.
The yawning gap between manufactured exports and imports highlights the structural weakness in Nigeria’s industrial base.
Raw material exports provided a rare bright spot, surging 181.24 per cent year-on-year to N2.31 trillion, led by urea exports worth N1.07 trillion, primarily destined for the United States. Solid minerals also performed well, rising 90.03 per cent to N146.91 billion.
Trade Partners
India emerged as Nigeria’s leading export destination, purchasing goods worth N3.29 trillion. Spain, the Netherlands, the United States, and Togo completed the top five, collectively absorbing 38.51 per cent of all exports.
On the import side, China maintained its dominance, supplying N5.92 trillion worth of goods—41.02 per cent of Nigeria’s total imports. The United States, India, the Netherlands, and Germany followed in that order.
Machinery and transport equipment dominated the import basket at N5.46 trillion, followed by chemicals at N2.51 trillion and manufactured goods at N1.87 trillion.
What the Numbers Mean
The Q2 trade surplus, while impressive on paper, reveals an economy that remains dangerously reliant on petroleum exports. Agricultural and manufactured goods, sectors capable of generating broad-based employment and sustainable growth, are in sharp decline even as imports in these categories continue to rise.
For policymakers, the data presents a clear warning. Nigeria’s external trade position has strengthened, but the underlying structure remains fragile and undiversified. Without urgent intervention to boost non-oil exports, the nation risks remaining perpetually vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations and demand shocks.
The NBS is expected to release a more detailed sectoral breakdown in the coming weeks, which will provide deeper insight into the specific drivers of the Q2 trade performance and the policy responses required to address the emerging challenges.
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