For the second time in less than a year, Dangote Refinery has gone to court to demand a ban on fuel imports. Its argument is simple: the refinery can now supply most of what Nigeria consumes, so import licences issued to other companies should be voided.
The argument is seductive. It appeals to every Nigerian who has watched fuel imports drain the nation’s foreign reserves for decades, and to the patriotic desire to see local refining finally take its rightful place.
But seductive arguments are not always sound ones. And this one appears like it is designed to kill competition, not protect consumers.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has told the Federal High Court in Lagos that Dangote’s petroleum products are sold at “significantly high and fluctuating market prices dictated by its commercial interests.” That is a polite way of saying the refinery charges whatever it wants, whenever it wants.
In recent weeks, the ex-depot price of Dangote petrol has moved from N1,200 to N1,275 to N1,350 and back down again, all within a single month. Marketers who bought at the peak lost money. Those who waited got a better deal. That is not a stable pricing regime. That is a guessing game.
Now imagine the court grants Dangote’s request. No more imports. No more alternative suppliers. Just one company, with one pricing desk, deciding what 200 million Nigerians will pay for fuel.
What stops that company from raising prices arbitrarily? What protects the consumer when the only seller decides that tomorrow’s price is N1,500 or N2,000? The answer is nothing.
And what happens when the refinery shuts down for maintenance, as every industrial facility in the world must? What happens if there is a fire, a crude supply disruption, or a labour strike? Refineries are not immune to misfortune. When misfortune strikes Dangote, and every other supplier has been eliminated by court order, who fills the gap?
No one. And Nigerians will return to the long queues, the black market prices, and the manufactured scarcity that have haunted this country for decades.
None of this is to diminish what Dangote has achieved. The $20bn refinery is a marvel. It is the kind of industrial ambition that Nigeria has desperately lacked. The government has rightly supported it with crude allocations, tax incentives, and policy accommodations. Dangote deserves praise for seeing the project through against enormous odds.
But support for one company is not a mandate to hand that company total control over a critical national resource. Fuel is not a luxury. It is the lifeline of the economy. Every business, every hospital, every generator, every transport company depends on it. Placing that lifeline entirely in private hands, without competition or oversight, is not energy security. It is energy risk.
This newspaper does not support the indefinite importation of fuel. The goal of a self-sufficient Nigeria, refining what it consumes, is the correct goal. But the path to that goal must be realistic, not reckless.
Today, Dangote supplies roughly two-thirds of the nation’s daily petrol needs. The remaining third still comes from imports. The country also needs other local refineries, modular and conventional, to come online. That process is underway but not complete. Until Nigeria has multiple domestic sources of supply, imports must remain as a strategic buffer.
That is not a betrayal of local refining. It is a recognition of reality.
What then is the way forward?
First, Dangote should compete on price, not in court. If the refinery lowers its ex-depot price sufficiently, importers will have no economic reason to bring in foreign fuel. No marketer will pay more for imported petrol when cheaper local supply is available. That is how markets work. Let competition, not litigation, drive imports out of business.
Second, the government should maintain the import window as a temporary measure. It should not be an open-ended license for indefinite importation. But it should remain until other domestic refineries are operational and Nigeria can genuinely boast of multiple supply sources. The NNPC should function as a supplier of last resort, not a competitor seeking to undermine Dangote.
Third, marketers must accept that the era of importation is ending. They should adjust their business models accordingly. But as long as imports remain legal, they have a right to compete fairly. That competition benefits consumers by keeping prices in check.
Finally, the Nigerian people must recognise that no one in this fight is purely fighting for them. Dangote fights for Dangote. The NNPC fights for its own survival. Marketers fight for their margins. Consumers have only themselves and the institutions that represent them.
The court will decide the legal question. But the larger question, what kind of market Nigeria wants to build—belongs to everyone.
Do we want a market where multiple players compete on price and service, and consumers benefit from choice? Or do we want a market where one company decides what everyone will pay, and consumers have no alternative but to comply?
This newspaper chooses competition. Not because we distrust Dangote. But because we trust the Nigerian people to benefit from a market that works for them, not just for billionaires.
The refinery has made its case in court. Now let the government, the regulators, and the industry work together to build a system where local refining thrives without resorting to monopoly. That is the real victory Nigeria needs.
— Spear News Nigeria
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