By Eshioromeh Sebastian
Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, a prominent political strategist has poured cold water on prospects of a unified opposition, pointing to fundamental differences in the temperaments and loyalties of followers of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.
Convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Umar Ardo, has declared that a merger between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi faces nearly insurmountable hurdles — with each man presenting a unique challenge that complicates any coalition talks.
Speaking during an interview on Arise News, Ardo painted a picture of two candidates with opposing strengths and weaknesses when it comes to stepping aside for a common flagbearer.
According to the political analyst, Atiku — who ran on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party in 2023 — is highly unlikely to voluntarily withdraw from the race, even though his supporters would likely accept such a decision if he made it.
On the flip side, Ardo argued that Obi — now the standard-bearer of the Nigeria Democratic Congress — could conceivably agree to step down, but his devoted followers would view such a move as betrayal and refuse to follow him to another candidate.
“Atiku does not have the propensity by himself to say, ‘I will step down.’ If he says so, he will not have a problem with his support base. But the issue is that he is highly unlikely to say that,” Ardo explained.
“Then Peter Obi has the propensity to say, ‘I will step down.’ But if he says so, he will not have his support base. He will not be able to carry his support base. His support base will not go with him.”
Ardo emphasized that unless these two interconnected dilemmas are resolved, the dream of a robust opposition coalition capable of challenging President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid would remain just that — a dream.
However, the LND convener offered a silver lining, suggesting that a merger may not be strictly necessary for opposition victory. He argued that either candidate, if properly strategized, possesses the individual firepower to upset the ruling party’s chances.
“Unless we are able to resolve these two challenges, then I don’t see the fusing together being possible. However, even if they do not fuse together, individually, anyone of them has the capacity to upturn the order, depending on how he strategises himself,” Ardo stated.
“So, even if they don’t, they still have the capacity to win the election against the incumbent on an individual basis.”
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