…Defends tough choices as foundation for Nigeria’s future
By Our Correspondents
President Bola Tinubu has declared that his administration is only at the beginning of a long-term economic transformation agenda, signalling that a potential second term would be dedicated to deepening the painful but necessary reforms that have defined his first years in office.
Speaking during a presidential media session at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, President Tinubu made it clear that the tough decisions already taken, including the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market, were not endpoints but foundational steps .
When asked what his focus would be if re-elected, the President responded with characteristic directness: “Do more work. More challenges are there. The world won’t wait for anybody. You have to continue to reset and rethink, challenge our intellectual curiosity as a government” .
President Tinubu outlined the governing philosophy that has shaped his approach since taking office in May 2023, insisting that transformative leadership requires the courage to act when action is needed — not when it is convenient.
“The hallmark of a transformative leader is the ability to take decisions, do what you will do, at the time it has to be done, on behalf of the people,” Tinubu stated .
It is a philosophy that has come at considerable political cost. The removal of the fuel subsidy — implemented on his first day in office — and the floating of the naira triggered immediate hardship, with inflation soaring and millions of Nigerians feeling the pinch of higher transportation and food costs. But the President has remained unapologetic, arguing that the old system was unsustainable and corrupt.
“It is a fake life to think you can, in a global economy, continue the subsidy that is wasteful. It’s an encouragement to falsification of papers, smuggling,” he said .
The President revealed the scale of the crisis his administration inherited: “Of the 36 states, 27 of them were unable to pay salaries. Where is the money? You are oil-producing, you are earning, you are given fuel, yet you have no refinery that is functional. It is not possible to continue that trend” .
Acknowledging the hardship suffered by ordinary Nigerians, President Tinubu employed a striking analogy to frame the reforms as a necessary, if painful, process toward lasting prosperity.
“It is difficult; it is painful, but it is just like the human reproduction process. A woman carries a pregnancy, endures the pain of labour, and smiles when she sees a live child,” he stated .
According to the President, that “live child” is already beginning to take shape. He pointed to macroeconomic stabilization, a more predictable naira, and renewed investor confidence as evidence that the worst may be behind Africa’s largest economy.
“Today, there is a very bright light at the end of the tunnel; the economy is stable, the naira is stable and predictable. Planners can prepare reasonable budgets and people can plan their lives better,” Tinubu said.
The numbers appear to support this cautiously optimistic assessment. Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to approximately $49.4 billion as of March 2026, up from about $32 billion in mid-2024, providing roughly 13 months of import cover.
Monthly Federation Account Allocation Committee disbursements now range between N1.8 trillion and N2.6 trillion, compared to substantially lower figures before the reforms, reflecting improved revenue generation and reduced leakages .
The $20 Billion Bet
Perhaps the most concrete signal of investor confidence came from the President’s own projection: Nigeria is on track to attract nearly $20 billion in foreign direct investment in 2026 .
“This year alone, I can beat my chest that Nigeria is attracting close to $20 billion in foreign direct investment,” Tinubu told the forum .
The projected inflows are being driven by ongoing macroeconomic reforms centered on transparency, operational efficiency, and an investor-friendly business environment.
The administration has introduced critical incentives to attract investment while removing longstanding bottlenecks that previously discouraged capital, including the unification of multiple exchange rate windows that once made financial modelling in Nigeria a speculative exercise .
At the heart of President Tinubu’s economic vision is a philosophy he describes as “Africa First” — an extension of his long-standing “Nigeria First” approach to governance .
“I believe in Africa first, because I’ve started Nigeria first,” he declared .
Under this framework, the President has made it clear that Nigeria will no longer serve merely as a source of raw materials for foreign industries. “We don’t want scavengers. We don’t want extractors,” Tinubu said. “We want people to add value” .
“No one will take raw minerals out of Nigeria without adding value. With our metals, we can produce batteries for cars,” he stated .
This industrial policy is already visible in the government’s backing of the Dangote Refinery, a 650,000-barrel-per-day facility that President Tinubu says has transformed Nigeria from a net importer of refined petroleum products to a net exporter capable of supplying aviation fuel to airlines across Africa and Europe .
The President defended the government’s decision to approve the sale of crude oil to the refinery in naira rather than dollars, describing it as a stabilizing mechanism that eliminates exchange rate volatility and reduces dependency on foreign credit instruments .
A Second Term Agenda: More Discipline, More Transparency
Beyond the headlines from Kigali, President Tinubu has been more specific about what a second term would entail. At a separate meeting with global investors in Paris earlier this month, he outlined a post-2027 agenda centered on strengthening fiscal discipline, enhancing transparency, and delivering policy consistency .
According to a statement by his Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the President told investors from Citibank, Amundi, PGIM, and other major financial institutions that his government remains committed to “deepening reforms, enhancing transparency across the oil value chain, and implementing a multi-pronged security strategy” .
“The focus remains on policy stability and diligent execution to ensure these strategic shifts translate into concrete benefits for all Nigerians,” Tinubu said .
This emphasis on “policy consistency” is significant. It suggests that a second term would not represent a pivot or a retreat from the reform agenda but rather its intensification — more fiscal discipline, greater transparency, and deeper structural changes aimed at making Nigeria a competitive investment destination .
The Debt Challenge
Yet even as the President projects confidence, significant headwinds remain. Chief among them is the burden of debt servicing, which threatens to crowd out spending on infrastructure, healthcare, and education.
In a speech at the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi just days before the Kigali forum, President Tinubu disclosed that Nigeria will spend approximately $11.6 billion servicing its debt in 2026 — nearly half of projected government revenue .
“Every single dollar that leaves our treasury to pay punitive interest rates is a dollar that did not go into our steel sector, our textile mills, our agro-processing plants, or our digital industries,” he told the summit .
The President used the occasion to call for a fundamental overhaul of the global financial system, which he argued treats African sovereigns as persistently high-risk borrowers, driving up interest costs and limiting access to long-term finance.
“Nigeria is not asking for charity,” he said. “We’re demanding a financial system that intentionally enables Africa to industrialize, to process its own minerals, refine its own crude oil, manufacture its own pharmaceuticals, and compete fairly in global markets” .
The President also called for the establishment of an African credit rating agency, arguing that existing international agencies — which dominate 95 per cent of the market — do not fully understand Africa’s risks and opportunities .
“Capital is cowardly,” he said. “It needs transparency, accountability, and stability. Governments must provide policy and legal frameworks that make investors feel secure” .
International Validation
President Tinubu’s reform agenda received a significant endorsement on the sidelines of the Africa CEO Forum, where the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expressed support for his economic programme and pledged closer cooperation with Nigeria .
“We support and understand the pillars of your reforms,” OECD Deputy Secretary-General Frantisek Ruzicka told the President. “I think other leaders should learn from you, especially in improving public finances and working conditions” .
The OECD — a grouping of 38 mostly developed economies — has identified several areas for potential collaboration, including public finance management, trade competitiveness, investment facilitation, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and solid minerals development .
The endorsement is notable not only for its source but for its timing. Coming from an organisation that traditionally works with advanced economies, OECD backing signals that Nigeria’s reforms are being taken seriously by the international policy establishment.
All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of an approaching electoral cycle. Nigeria’s next presidential election is scheduled for January 2027, and while President Tinubu has not formally declared his candidacy, his language in Kigali left little doubt about his intentions.
When asked what a second term would look like, he did not demur or deflect. He answered directly: “Do more work” .
The political calculation appears clear. The President is betting that by 2027, Nigerians will have begun to see tangible dividends from the pain of the past three years — stable prices, functioning refineries, improved infrastructure, and a more predictable economy.
A support group, the National Agenda for Tinubu 2027, has already been unveiled, positioning itself as a nationwide civic movement aimed at consolidating and advancing the President’s reform programme . The group argues that many of the ongoing reforms require time, stability, and informed public support to yield tangible democratic dividends .
But the political opposition is already framing the President’s second-term ambitions differently, pointing to persistent hardship, unemployment, and security challenges as evidence that the reforms have failed to deliver for ordinary Nigerians.
President Tinubu, however, appears undeterred. For him, the path forward is clear — more work, deeper reforms, and no turning back.
“The hallmark of a transformative leader is the ability to take decisions, do what you will do, at the time it has to be done, on behalf of the people” .
Whether Nigerian voters will give him the chance to complete that transformation will be decided in just over seven months.
The Reforms: A Comprehensive Overview
Beyond the headlines and political rhetoric, President Tinubu’s reform agenda represents one of the most ambitious attempts to restructure Nigeria’s political economy since the return to democracy in 1999. The following section provides a detailed examination of the key reforms, their implementation, their impact, and the challenges that remain.
- Fuel Subsidy Removal
The Reform: On May 29, 2023 — his first day in office — President Tinubu announced the complete removal of the fuel subsidy, a costly intervention that had kept petrol prices artificially low for decades.
The Rationale: President Tinubu has argued that the subsidy regime was not only economically unsustainable but fundamentally corrupt. “It is an encouragement to falsification of papers, smuggling,” he said in Kigali . Under the old system, subsidies were claimed on imaginary volumes of petrol, while large quantities of subsidized fuel were smuggled across Nigeria’s porous borders to neighboring countries where prices were higher .
The Impact: The removal of the subsidy had immediate and painful consequences. Petrol prices more than tripled in some areas, triggering a cascade of price increases for transportation, food, and other essentials. Inflation surged, and millions of Nigerians faced a sharp decline in their purchasing power.
However, proponents of the reform argue that the long-term benefits are already becoming visible. Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State, who serves as Chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, has described the subsidy removal as “one of the most consequential anti-corruption measures ever undertaken in Nigeria” .
“Resources previously lost to subsidy payments are now being redirected toward infrastructure development, social investments, and fiscal expansion,” Uzodimma told diplomats in Abuja .
The government has implemented palliative measures to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable, including direct cash transfers to poor households and support for indigent students. “For students who ordinarily would stay out of school because their parents cannot afford fees, they are now in school. I’m even giving them allowances and upkeep,” President Tinubu said in Kigali.
- Foreign Exchange Unification
The Reform: The administration abolished the multiple exchange rate regime that had previously existed, unifying exchange rates around a market-determined float.
The Rationale: Under the previous system, the Central Bank of Nigeria maintained multiple exchange rates for different purposes — an official rate, a rate for investors and exporters, a parallel market rate, and others. This created opportunities for arbitrage and rent-seeking, as those with access to cheaper official dollars could resell them at market rates. It also made financial planning nearly impossible for businesses, as it was unclear which rate would apply to any given transaction.
The Impact: The transition was turbulent. The naira depreciated sharply against the dollar as the currency found its market level, fueling imported inflation and increasing the cost of servicing foreign currency debts.
But proponents argue that the unification has restored transparency to the foreign exchange market. The gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates, which previously exceeded 30 per cent, has now fallen below two per cent .
“The chaos that used to make Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators effectively fictitious has been retired,” Governor Uzodimma said. “An investor coming into Nigeria today can build a financial model that holds” .
The results are visible in several indicators. Diaspora remittances, which hovered around $200 million monthly in 2023, have increased to an average of $600 million monthly, reflecting increased confidence in the formal financial system . Foreign exchange market liquidity reached $10 billion in April 2026, and the administration has cleared over $10 billion in foreign exchange liabilities that had built up under the previous regime .
- Tax Reforms
The Reform: The administration has embarked on a comprehensive overhaul of Nigeria’s tax system, aimed at simplifying administration, improving compliance, and increasing revenue collection.
The Rationale: Nigeria has historically had one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios in the world, making it difficult for the government to fund infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other public goods without resorting to borrowing.
“Nobody wants to pay taxes ordinarily,” President Tinubu acknowledged in Kigali. “Every human being expects development, but the question they don’t answer is: How do you pay for it?”
The Impact: The tax reforms are still in their early stages, but initial results are promising. The administration has simplified tax administration, making it possible for citizens to self-assess and pay via mobile platforms . The digitalization of tax collection is closing leaks that existed for decades .
The impact on government revenue has been significant. Monthly Federation Account Allocation Committee disbursements now range between N1.8 trillion and N2.6 trillion, compared to substantially lower figures before the reforms. In January 2026 alone, more than N2.59 trillion was shared from December 2025 revenue .
- Industrial Policy and Local Value Addition
The Reform: The administration has adopted an industrial policy focused on encouraging local value addition, supporting indigenous enterprises, and discouraging the export of raw materials without processing.
The Rationale: Nigeria has historically exported raw materials — crude oil, minerals, agricultural commodities — only to import finished goods at much higher prices. This model has kept Nigeria poor despite its resource wealth, as value addition and manufacturing jobs accrue to other countries.
“We don’t want scavengers and extractors. We want partners who process and manufacture locally,” President Tinubu said in Kigali .
The Impact: The most visible manifestation of this policy is the government’s support for the Dangote Refinery. President Tinubu has described the facility as proof that African nations can successfully execute large-scale strategic projects when supported by strong political will and enabling government policies .
The government has approved the sale of crude oil to the refinery in naira to ease operational difficulties and reduce pressure on foreign exchange demand. According to President Tinubu, the strategy is working: “Today Nigeria is a net exporter of PMS, aviation fuel, and other products. Dangote is supplying aviation fuel across Africa and to European airlines” .
Beyond oil, the administration has made it clear that no raw minerals will leave Nigeria without local processing. “With our metals, we can produce batteries for cars,” the President said, pointing to the potential for Nigeria to participate in the global electric vehicle supply chain .
- Infrastructure Development
The Reform: The administration is pursuing an ambitious infrastructure agenda, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry highway, alongside major investments in digital infrastructure.
The Rationale: President Tinubu has argued that infrastructure is essential for national integration, economic development, and unlocking investment opportunities. “My philosophy is Nigeria first,” he declared, emphasizing that locally produced cement and steel are being prioritized for these projects to stimulate domestic industries.
The Impact: On digital infrastructure, the administration has laid or is in the process of laying 19,000 to 90,000 kilometres of fibre optic cable across the country (depending on the phase of the project) . This investment is designed to strengthen connectivity, support education, and enable Nigeria’s transition “from basic telecoms to AI and e-commerce” .
- Security Sector Reforms
The Reform: The administration has outlined a multi-pronged security strategy, including police decentralization and measures to disrupt terrorist financing .
The Rationale: Insecurity — whether from banditry in the northwest, separatist violence in the southeast, or the long-running Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast — has been a persistent drag on Nigeria’s economy, discouraging investment and displacing millions of people.
The Impact: Details on implementation remain limited, but the administration has signaled that security reforms will be a priority in a potential second term. The emphasis on “disrupting terrorist financing” suggests a focus on the financial networks that sustain armed groups, an approach that has proven effective in other counterinsurgency contexts .
- Regional and Continental Integration
The Reform: President Tinubu has used his international engagements to advocate for deeper regional and continental integration, including implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, the establishment of a continental commodity exchange platform, and increased use of local currencies in cross-border transactions .
The Rationale: Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, and President Tinubu has argued that the country must take a leadership role in shaping the continent’s economic future.
“In ECOWAS, Nigeria is a big brother; in Africa, we are the fat lady. We must sing the tune and sing the right tune for others to pay attention to,” he said in Kigali.
The Impact: The administration has made some progress on these fronts, including advocating for an African credit rating agency to counter the dominance of Western agencies that the President argues do not understand Africa’s risks and opportunities . However, implementation of the AfCFTA remains uneven, with many countries maintaining tariff and non-tariff barriers to intra-African trade.
- Calls for Global Financial Reform
The Reform: President Tinubu has used international forums to call for a fundamental overhaul of the global financial system, including cheaper financing for African countries, curbs on illicit financial flows, and greater support for industrialisation .
The Rationale: The President argues that the current system treats African sovereigns as persistently high-risk borrowers, driving up interest costs and limiting access to long-term finance. This, he says, is a structural disadvantage that perpetuates African poverty.
“Nigeria is not asking for charity,” he told the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi. “We’re demanding a financial system that intentionally enables Africa to industrialize, to process its own minerals, refine its own crude oil, manufacture its own pharmaceuticals, and compete fairly in global markets” .
The Impact: While calls for global financial reform have gained traction among African leaders and some international institutions, fundamental changes to the architecture of institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank remain elusive. However, President Tinubu’s willingness to voice these criticisms represents a departure from the more deferential approach taken by some of his predecessors.
Challenges and Criticisms
Despite the President’s optimistic framing, significant challenges remain. Critics argue that the reforms have imposed immense hardship on ordinary Nigerians without delivering commensurate benefits.
Persistent Inflation: While month-on-month inflation figures suggest that supply chains are adjusting and monetary policy is beginning to bite, headline inflation remains high by historical standards, eroding the purchasing power of wage earners and fixed-income households .
Unemployment: Official unemployment figures have improved modestly, but underemployment and youth unemployment remain serious challenges. The President’s emphasis on industrial policy and local value addition is partly a response to this challenge, but manufacturing has yet to take off at the scale needed to absorb the millions of young Nigerians entering the labor market each year.
Debt Burden: As noted earlier, debt service is expected to consume nearly half of projected government revenue in 2026, leaving limited room for discretionary spending on infrastructure, education, and healthcare . The administration’s ability to address this constraint without resorting to further borrowing remains uncertain.
Security: While there have been some successes — including the reduction of crude oil theft in the Niger Delta — insecurity remains a major challenge across large parts of the country. The President’s multi-pronged security strategy has yet to deliver a decisive breakthrough.
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