𝗘𝗗𝗜𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗜𝗔𝗟: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗞 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝘀

The statement issued by former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso on Saturday night has effectively terminated whatever presidential alliance Nigerians believed was being built between him and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi.

This disavowal comes just days after both political camps held a widely publicised “unity summit” in Abuja under the banner of the OK Movement, an event designed to project a joint political future. The summit, themed “One Voice, One Vision: In Unity We Win,” was held at the nation’s capital, with over 400 supporters reportedly registered to attend .

The event featured notable speakers including Buba Galadima, a chieftain of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); activist Aisha Yesufu; and Isaac Fayose, brother of former Ekiti State governor . The organisers had described the gathering as a “stakeholders’ meeting” aimed at consolidating support for an Obi-Kwankwaso joint presidential ticket ahead of the 2027 general elections .

At that very summit, Buba Galadima had confidently announced that both leaders would formally unveil their new political platform on Monday, May 4, and would defect from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). “Both Obi, Kwankwaso and their chieftains were on ground between yesterday and this morning signing the relevant documents with Senator Dickson and the NDC leaders,” Galadima told journalists at the event .

The Kwankwasiyya movement’s spokesperson, Habibu Mohammed, had also confirmed that discussions with the NDC had reached “about 90 percent,” with only minor issues left to be resolved. He added that the decision followed a unanimous endorsement by stakeholders from all 44 local government areas in Kano State.

Yet within hours of that summit, which was meant to signal unity and a coordinated political direction, Kwankwaso released a statement that effectively dismissed the entire premise.

In his late-night address, Kwankwaso neither confirmed nor denied leaving the ADC. Instead, he made two declarations that carry far greater weight. First, he stated that the ADC has neither zoned its presidential ticket nor taken any decision on a candidate. Second, he announced that he has neither declared any intention to run for president nor endorsed any aspirant. He then confirmed that he is in active consultations with the NDC and the People’s Redemption Party (PRP).

The message is unambiguous. Kwankwaso is not interested in being anybody’s vice-president. And he is actively exploring alternatives that place him at the top of the ticket, not the bottom.

Why this matters

The significance of this development cannot be overstated. The opposition’s best hope of defeating the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027 rested on a unified ticket that could bridge Nigeria’s regional and religious divides. Obi commands significant support in the South-East, South-South, and among urban youth nationwide. Kwankwaso remains a formidable force in Kano and the broader North-West.

Without a joint ticket, both men face steep electoral math. Obi cannot win without substantial northern votes. Kwankwaso cannot win without substantial southern votes. Running separately in 2027 would likely produce the same result as 2023: a divided opposition and an APC victory.

Yet Kwankwaso has clearly calculated that accepting a vice-presidential slot is worse than running alone.

Kwankwaso’s calculation is rooted in political reality, not personal ego. He knows that a ticket headed by a southern Christian will struggle to gain traction in the core North. The 2023 election demonstrated that religious and regional sentiments remain powerful determinants of voting behaviour, particularly in the North-West and North-East.

If Kwankwaso were to run as Obi’s vice-president, he would risk being perceived by his northern base as a subordinate to a southern candidate. That perception could erode his political capital in Kano and beyond — capital he has spent decades building. For a politician of Kwankwaso’s stature, that is an unacceptable trade.

This is not speculation. Comments from Kwankwaso’s own supporters reveal the depth of this concern. Even among his followers, there are warnings against attaching himself to a ticket where a southerner leads. The northern electorate, they argue, will simply not turn out for such an arrangement.

Kwankwaso has listened. And he has decided that his political future lies elsewhere.

The ADC’s legal crisis

Kwankwaso also cited the ADC’s ongoing legal troubles as a reason for his consultations with other parties. This justification deserves serious examination.

The Supreme Court recently affirmed the David Mark-led National Working Committee as the legitimate leadership of the ADC. However, the same judgment remitted the matter back to the High Court, leaving the leadership question unresolved. A Federal High Court in Abuja has also barred INEC from recognising any congress organised by a disputed caretaker leadership of the party.

For a politician who left the NNPP precisely because of “externally influenced legal problems that made our stay perilous,” this is a valid concern. Kwankwaso has no interest in joining another party that could be paralysed by litigation just as the 2027 election approaches.

The NDC and PRP, whatever their other limitations, do not carry the same baggage of ongoing legal battles. Kwankwaso’s exploration of those options is therefore not merely tactical, it is protective. He is seeking a stable platform. The ADC, at present, cannot guarantee one.

Where does this leave Obi?

Peter Obi has not yet responded directly to Kwankwaso’s statement. The Obidient Movement has confirmed that Obi is engaged in “extensive, high-level consultations” but has refused to confirm the ADC as his platform. That silence is itself telling.

Obi now faces a difficult choice. He can remain in the ADC and compete for its presidential ticket against Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, and potentially others. Or he can follow Kwankwaso’s lead and explore alternatives such as the NDC or PRP.

Neither option is ideal. The ADC is fractured by legal disputes. The NDC and PRP are untested platforms with limited organisational reach. And any move to a new party carries the risk of appearing opportunistic to voters who are already weary of political nomadism.

What is clear is that the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is no longer a realistic prospect. Kwankwaso has effectively closed that door. Obi must now chart his own course.