Since its 2015 defeat, Nigeria’s PDP has struggled with endless crises, failing to regain stability. Once led by icons like Ekwueme, Abubakar Rimi, Solomon Lar, Adamu Ciroma, Lawal Keita and others, the party now appears hopelessly divided, worsened by internal power struggles and its recent collapse in Delta—a former stronghold. Is this the beginning of the end? Gabriel Atumeyi examines the intrigues
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is no stranger to crises and turbulence which has no doubt escalated since it fell from grace in 2015, so much so that it is increasingly difficult to discern what exactly does the party stands for. While the recent announcement of the defection of the entire governing PDP leadership in Delta state came somewhat as a surprise, many observers have long highlighted the party’s macabre dance at the brink and the possibility of its extinction for a party that has seemingly grown moribund after 26 years as a dominant force on the nation’s political landscape.
A Weak Opposition
While it is a general maxim that democratic politics thrive better if opposition parties, especially established and popular ones are competitive enough to serve their role as a check on the excesses of the party in power and be an alternative platform for ideas and innovation, giving vibrancy to the system but under the current dispensation the contrary seems to be the case. Amid gradual, building and growing frustration and disenchantment by the Nigerian electorates especially at the second half of President Muhammadu Buhari’s constitutional tenures, and into the Tinubu’s era, with biting conditions imposed by the renewed hope transformation and fiscal discipline agenda, the PDP has been locked in a war of attrition, a virtually ceaseless power struggle within itself, between factions, personalities and geo-political regions.
This one time blazing star of the Nigeria’s democracy, which once prided itself as the shield against military rule, is now finding it impossible to put its house in order. A party which started as the nucleus of anti- authoritarian movement led by the G – 34 among others had overtime grown to become Africa largest ruling party. At the height of its power in 2007, the PDP controlled 31 states. They had 85 out of 109 Senators and 260 out of 360 House of Representatives members. It was like they had it all and therefore abandoned all principles to the wind. Thus began the culture of impunity that contributed in no small measure to its eventual ouster from power.
Now in the opposition it still hasn’t learnt its lessons and successfully set in motion a process for its reformation and renewal, weather as a result of internal power play or by extraneous political considerations. To return to its winning ways of history, the party has to do so much and it seems quite clear it is reluctant to shoulder the requisite responsibility, which has inadvertently led to the emergence and outstanding electoral performance of the likes of the Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Much to the chagrin of the ruling APC with its modest and chequered achievements.
One person that has always featured in the crises rocking the PDP is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who has long coveted to occupy the office of the President. Atiku, with his sizeable structure has crisscrossed the party aisles, not once, not twice. Initially to the Action Congres of Nigeria (ACN), where incumbent President Tinubu then presided over affairs and later back to the PDP and after falling out with Goodluck Jonathan led a band of enrages to defect as part of the new PDP that merged to form the APC. Atiku subsequently returned to his PDP heartland positioning himself as one of the foremost modern northern leaders, even going ahead to challenge President Buhari in 2019 and losing to Tinubu in 2023 after resisting staunch calls to zone the party’s flagbearership to the south. This of course, was the root of his current feud with Nyesome Wike that is tearing the party asunder.
In the heydays of the Buhari administration, internecine tussle within the ranks even pitched former Governor of Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff against former Kaduna state Governor, Senator Ahmed Makarfi. Later it was between Adolphus Wabara and Nyesome Wike and subsequently evolved and crystallized into a rigid bipolar power play between the dual ambitions of the former Rivers State governor and the former vice president. In the ensuring atmosphere everything becomes a rollercoaster ride within which public sensitivity and acceptability are secondary factors.
Clash of Personalities
The rift between the former Vice President and the former Rivers state Governor, while it has always been there ever since Wike emerged as a major financier of the party, widened into a gulf with the events that surrounded the 2023 PDP presidential primary, in which Wike almost schemed out Atiku Abubakar, until a last minute maneuver that saw former Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal rallying to Atiku’s aid. Wike’s influence on the PDP since the 2015 general election had grown considerably, backed by an impressive resource base of the oil rich state, which he leveraged to build a powerful monolithic political structure under his sole command. Atiku on the other hand, has succeeded in cultivating an impressive followership, not only in the north but across geo – political zones and will not shy away from upending the informal zoning agreement when it doesn’t serve his immediate purpose, or more particularly, his lifelong ambition of occupying Aso Rock Villa.
A man of equal arrogance, and strong friendships, Nyesome Wike believes that Atiku is not much concerned about the state of the country or the party but himself and his ambition. Wike who fought against Atiku Abubakar not only at the PDP 2023 presidential primary but also at the presidential election, when he supported Tinubu and has since emerged as the minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in the succeeding administration, from whence he is further consolidating his influence on the party, and ready to strangle it, if it serves his ambition or his current principal.
Unable to manage the storm and force Wike out of the party, sensing the imbroglio and the weakened brand of the platform, while still relishing the prospect of another attempt at the presidency, Atiku is pushing for an alternative hybrid platform. A merger or grand coalition of a sort, akin to the 2013 conglomeration that birthed the APC. But that evidently has failed to gain traction within the party, if the recent outcome of the meeting of the PDP Governors Forum at Ibadan, the Oyo state capital is anything to go by.
The message is clear, the PDP is a brand and identity that is worth keeping and fighting for. Led by the Governor of Bauchi state, Senator Bala Abdulkadir Mohammad, the PDP Governors Forum, has been an important organ of balance and control within the party, mitigating and transcending the divisive tendencies wrought by the power play between Wike and Atiku. While Atiku with his rapprochement with the former Governor of Kaduna state, Nasir El – rufai, who his quickly becoming the leading light of the opposition, shows a man on the same old war path to clinch the presidential ticket of the PDP or some broader coalition, despite the presence of conditions and sentiments that contributed to his last general election defeat.
A Bleak Future
Caught in the seemingly endless wrangling between Atiku Abubakar and Nyesome Wike, the PDP is not doubt gasping for breath. Wike’s body language and utterances shows no sign of relinquishing his chokehold on the party allegedly in a bid to pave the way for President’s Tinubu’s 2027 reelection.
Atiku on the other hand is hell bent on clinching the party’s presidential ticket or leading it into a merger or grand coalition that could spell its official end as a party. Caught between a rock and a hard place, the only viable alternative for those who are tired of the rancour and uncertainties, is to seek safety in the APC.
So the recent defection of Governor, and his predecessor and 2023 PDP Vice Presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa as well as the entire leadership of the Delta state PDP to the APC, a traditional PDP stronghold, while it is surprising is also not very surprising.
The moves by Atiku through his realignment with his onetime mentor and arch foe, the former governor of Kaduna state, Mallam Nasir El – rufai is bound to materialize into a new political arrangement, which will however drastically affect the political stature of the PDP given Atiku’s large followings especially in the north. The Delta case may not be the last but the beginning of many more spectacular and abrupt defections, particularly as the zoning controversy enters an over drive mode in the lead up to the 2027 general election.
So far four or five more PDP governors are speculated to be testing the waters. Governor Fubara of Rivers State is one of these governors, who the state of emergency declaration might have pummeled into being receptive to ideas of having federal backings. Governor Eno of Akwa Ibom State, who only recently openly endorsed President Tinubu is another potential candidate for a possible fresh round of defections to the APC. With the Governor seeking to secure his 2027 reelection, and Senate President Goodswill Akpabio wanting to solidify his party’s presence in his home state for the president, all cards seems to be on the table. Political observers have opined that it is all part of Tinubu’s masterstroke to consolidate his position ahead of the next general election not more than two years ahead.
While the 2023 general election had tested and radically diminished the PDP’s public standing, with new gainers like the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP), the 2027 general election will surely see new major players like the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the L.P and even the NNPP. PDP with eleven governors from the 2023 general election is clear sinking. Ikeagwuonu Ugochinyere, a chieftain of the party and member of the house of representatives in Imo State, recently added to the predictions of an impending fresh round of defections of atleast two governors and about forty law makers. The like of Peter Mbah of Enugu State, Governor Eno of Akwa Ibom State and suspended Governor Fubara of Rivers State are seem likely to cut a deal with Tinubu. While other PDP Governors no doubt have strong vested interest in holding the fort, the likes of Kefas Agbu of Taraba state, Ademola Adeleke of Osun state, Bala Mohammad of Bauchi state and Douye Diri of Bayelsa state.
The other governors like Seyi Makinde, Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa state, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau and Dauda Lawal are in a precarious position that may flip when the vicissitudes of politics demand it. Even if the remaining PDP Governors make it unscathed to the 2027 general election on the flagships of their party, they will be up against formidable opponents backed by state power. In Bauchi, the chairman of the PDP Governors Forum, will be up against an alliance led by Ahmed Tuggar and former Air Chief of Staff, Sadiq Abubakar. In Oyo state, the PDP will contend against the minister of power Adebayo Adelabu and co.
In Zamfara the PDP will lock horns against a coalition led by Senator Marafa and Bello Matawalle the current Minister of state for defense.
Tinubu, that old master of the political game seems determined to ensure that the party of his political ingenuity deals a spectacular blow to the party which in 2003 sent him retreating all the way to the sea. So the end of the PDP seems in sight until something radical or near miraculous takes place. The one time dominant party on the Nigerian political scene will not long survive if it becomes a shadow of its former self, and the major beneficiary from the debacle may be the Social Democratic Party (SDP) under the tutelage of Nasir El – rufai and others. But as the saying goes twenty four hours in politics is a long time.
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