Nigeria’s headline inflation rate edged lower to 15.91% in June 2026, compared to 15.93% recorded in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics.
This marginal decline ends three consecutive months of rising inflation and offers tentative signs that price pressures may be easing.
The June inflation rate was significantly lower than the 25.29% recorded in June 2025, reflecting a continued moderation in headline price growth on a year-on-year basis.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 1.66% in June, down from 1.75% in May, indicating a slower pace of price increases compared to the previous month.
The marginal decline in the headline rate aligns with forecasts from analysts who had projected inflation would hold near 15.9% in June. BusinessDay’s Inflation Nowcast had estimated headline inflation at 15.9% for June, with a likely range of 15.7% to 16.1%.
Despite the slight moderation in overall inflation, food inflation remained elevated, rising to 17.52% year-on-year in June. On a monthly basis, food inflation accelerated to 3.75%, up from 2.98% in May, suggesting renewed pressure on food prices.
The persistent rise in food prices continues to pose challenges for Nigerian households. Association of Professional Food Service Providers of Nigeria (APFSPN) has lamented the persistent rise in food prices, noting that fluctuations in the cost of food items and cooking gas are putting pressure on operators in the sector.
The rainy season has worsened the situation, particularly for highly perishable commodities such as tomatoes, whose prices have increased significantly in recent weeks.
Analysts at Meristem Research had identified food inflation as the key swing factor in the inflation outlook, noting that seasonal pre-harvest supply constraints were likely to offset some of the gains from lower logistics costs.
The rising cost of living continued to put pressure on Nigerians in June, according to the latest Inflation Expectations Survey released by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The survey showed that 67.5% of households reported spending more in June because of rising prices, while 66.8% of businesses also reported higher operating costs.
Concern over inflation remained widespread during the month, with the Inflation Perception Index standing at 45.0 points, indicating that many Nigerians still believe prices are rising at an uncomfortable pace. Among households, 76% described inflation as high in June, compared with 72.8% in May.
The survey also revealed a noticeable gap between rural and urban communities. About 76.4% of rural households reported experiencing high inflation, compared with 63.2% of urban households, suggesting that rising prices are hitting rural communities harder, possibly because of weaker supply chains, lower incomes and limited access to goods.
Despite the current challenges, the survey points to improving confidence that inflation may begin to ease. The Inflation Expectation Index is expected to decline to 32.2 points in July, suggesting that many respondents believe price increases will gradually slow.
Analysts have suggested that continued exchange rate stability, lower food prices, and disciplined economic policies will be needed for sustained disinflation. However, they caution that risks remain, particularly from elevated core inflation, high transportation costs, weather-related disruptions to agricultural production and potential volatility in the foreign exchange market.
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