Nigeria has maintained one of the world’s most affordable petrol markets, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive up fuel costs across advanced and emerging economies, according to fresh industry data.
Latest figures from GlobalPetrolPrices.com indicate that petrol in Nigeria currently sells at an average of $0.88 (N1,191.39) per litre, significantly below the global average of $1.32 (N1,787.08) per litre, based on an exchange rate of N1,353.85 to the dollar.
This pricing places Nigeria among a select group of countries where fuel remains relatively cheap, despite the country’s full deregulation of the downstream sector following the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023.
How Nigeria Compares Globally
Across major economies, petrol prices are substantially higher. In the United States, petrol retails at $1.075 (N1,455.39) per litre, while India and South Africa record $1.095 (N1,482.47) and $1.189 (N1,609.73) per litre respectively.
Advanced economies show even steeper prices, with the United Kingdom at $1.874 (N2,537.11), France at $2.152 (N2,913.49), and Germany at $2.343 (N3,172.07) per litre. Hong Kong tops the chart at $3.967 (N5,370.72) per litre.
Within the West African sub-region, Nigeria also compares favourably. Petrol prices are higher in Togo at $1.192 (N1,613.79), Benin at $1.218 (N1,648.99), Ghana at $1.240 (N1,678.77), and Cameroon at $1.478 (N2,000.99) per litre.
The Dangote Refinery Factor
Analysts attribute Nigeria’s relative price stability to the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, which has helped moderate domestic price volatility by absorbing a significant portion of global cost pressures while ensuring consistent product availability.
According to GlobalPetrolPrices, most countries selling petrol below the $1 per litre threshold rely on fuel subsidies, price controls, or regulated pricing mechanisms to shield consumers from international market volatility. Nigeria, however, operates a fully deregulated market, making its pricing resilience particularly notable.
Since the removal of subsidies, domestic petrol prices have risen by approximately 35 to 40 per cent. Yet this increase remains lower than in several other markets facing similar global pressures, with countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam recording hikes of over 67 per cent and 49 per cent respectively.
Supply Security Amid Global Turmoil
The Dangote refinery’s intervention has become particularly critical as many countries face supply disruptions, rationing, and sharp price spikes following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Industry observers note that without the scale and capacity of the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, Nigeria would have been far more exposed to global supply shocks, potentially resulting in higher pump prices, foreign exchange pressures, and widespread product shortages.
Instead, local refining has strengthened supply security, moderated price increases, and reinforced Nigeria’s position as one of the more stable fuel markets globally at a time of international instability.
A Deregulated Market With a Buffer
While Nigeria’s downstream sector now operates without government subsidies—meaning domestic prices are directly influenced by global crude movements and foreign exchange dynamics—the Dangote refinery has continued to act as a buffer for the economy.
The facility’s growing production capacity has helped reduce the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products, easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and providing a measure of insulation from international market shocks.
As global energy markets remain volatile, the combination of deregulation and domestic refining capacity appears to have positioned Nigeria uniquely—maintaining affordability without reverting to the costly subsidy regime of the past.
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