Nigeria’s crude oil production remains below its assigned quota by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as the country continues to struggle with output consistency despite a modest recovery in March 2026.
According to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report released in April, Nigeria produced an average of 1.38 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March. Although this reflects an increase of 69,000 barrels per day from the 1.31 mbpd recorded in February, it still falls short of the 1.5 mbpd quota by 117,000 barrels per day.
The data underscores a persistent production gap, marking the eighth consecutive month—since July 2025—that Nigeria has failed to meet its OPEC allocation. February’s output had already shown a steep decline of 146,000 barrels per day compared to January, further widening the country’s deficit before the slight rebound in March.
Historical trends reveal a pattern of instability. While Nigeria recorded a brief improvement in January 2026, with production rising to 1.459 mbpd from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025, the gains were quickly reversed the following month. Earlier figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had also indicated weakening production towards the end of 2025.
Over the course of 2025, Nigeria fell below its OPEC quota in nine out of twelve months, meeting or slightly exceeding the benchmark only in January, June, and July. The year began on a strong note, with production at 1.54 mbpd in January—about 38,700 barrels per day above the quota—but this momentum was not sustained.
By February 2025, output had slipped to 1.47 mbpd and dropped further to 1.40 mbpd in March, representing one of the widest shortfalls of the year. Although there were modest recoveries in April and May, the country remained below target until June, when production slightly exceeded the quota at 1.51 mbpd. This performance carried into July before declining again in the months that followed.
The first quarter of 2026 has continued this underperformance, with production levels falling short of the Federal Government’s budget benchmark, raising concerns about revenue projections and fiscal stability.
However, officials within the upstream regulator suggest that a turnaround may be underway. A senior official at the commission disclosed that production recovery began in mid-March following the completion of turnaround maintenance across key oil assets. The official expressed optimism that Nigeria could meet or even exceed its OPEC quota in April if current output levels are sustained.
Separately, the Chief Executive Officer of the commission recently stated that total oil production, including condensates, reached 1.8 mbpd in March—a figure that exceeds OPEC’s crude-only quota but highlights the distinction between crude oil and condensate in production reporting.
Nigeria’s inability to consistently meet its OPEC quota carries significant economic implications. Lower crude output directly affects export earnings, which remain a major source of government revenue. It also impacts domestic refining capacity, as local refineries struggle with insufficient crude supply.
This supply gap has already prompted intervention by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, which has begun sourcing crude oil from third-party international traders to sustain operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The move reflects the growing pressure on domestic supply chains and the need to stabilise refining activities within the country.
Meanwhile, broader OPEC data shows varying production trends among member countries. Saudi Arabia recorded a significant output adjustment, while Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait also posted notable declines. In contrast, countries like Venezuela, Congo, and Libya reported production increases, reflecting differing national strategies and operational conditions within the cartel.
The report also noted gaps in data reporting for some member states, including Iran and Gabon, and clarified discrepancies between production and market supply figures for Saudi Arabia.
As Nigeria navigates these challenges, the focus remains on sustaining recent gains in output while addressing structural issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and infrastructure constraints that have historically undermined production capacity. Whether the country can reverse its prolonged shortfall and regain compliance with OPEC quotas will depend largely on the durability of current recovery efforts and the stability of its oil-producing regions.
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