The escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has done more than drive up Nigeria’s headline inflation to 15.69 per cent. It has quietly and steadily shredded what ordinary Nigerians can buy with every naira in their pockets.
Before the crisis erupted, a litre of petrol cost roughly N830. Today, across most filling stations, the same litre sells for between N1,286 and N1,320. For a family that relied on N2,000 to fuel a generator for a day’s power, the same amount now barely covers half a day. For a commuter who spent N500 to get to work, the fare has climbed to N800 or more.
These are not abstract statistics. They are the daily arithmetic of survival for millions of Nigerian households already stretched thin.
The arithmetic of a shrinking naira
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline inflation rose to 15.69 per cent in April 2026, ending 12 months of steady decline. Food inflation climbed to 16.06 per cent, with month-on-month food prices jumping 3.63 per cent in a single month.
What this means in practical terms is that a family that could feed four people for a week on N10,000 six months ago now struggles to stretch the same amount to cover five days. A trader who used to stock two cartons of tomatoes with N50,000 now returns from the market with barely one.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise noted that food, transportation, energy products, healthcare and restaurant services together accounted for approximately 87 per cent of the inflationary pressure recorded in April. These are not luxury items. They are the basic building blocks of daily survival.
The transport trap
Transport fares have risen in lockstep with petrol prices. But unlike fuel, which occasionally sees marginal reductions, transport fares have proven stubbornly resistant to coming back down.
Analysts warn that every major increase in fuel prices in Nigeria historically translates into higher food inflation because the country moves nearly all its agricultural produce and consumer goods by road. When a truck driver pays more for diesel, the extra cost is distributed across every bag of rice, every crate of eggs and every bunch of vegetables carried to market.
The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, expressed regret that the Federal Government was not taking sufficient steps to protect the masses despite making gains from high oil prices.
“The government is not making any statements about the rising petrol prices, so it’s worrisome,” he said. “At least, the government could come up with some measures. We are making some gains now on the price of crude oil. The government can give some back to reduce the cost of transportation so that food will not be expensive.”
A modest but incomplete relief
On Saturday, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery announced a price cut, lowering its ex-depot petrol price to N1,250 per litre from N1,275. The reduction was passed on to consumers at some retail outlets, with MRS filling stations selling at N1,286, NIPCO and Heyden at N1,290, and NNPCL outlets at N1,305.
But a reduction of roughly N20 to N30 per litre, while welcome, does little to restore the purchasing power that has been steadily eroded over three years. Petrol prices have risen 643 per cent since May 2023, when the subsidy was removed and the product sold for approximately N175 per litre. The modest cut of recent days represents a fraction of that cumulative loss.
Why your naira buys less even when prices drop
Economists point to a phenomenon that compounds the pain for consumers. When fuel prices rise, transport fares and food prices climb almost immediately. But when fuel prices fall, the reverse does not happen at the same speed or scale.
Mr Olaolu Balogun, an economist, explained that higher fuel prices increase transport, manufacturing, logistics and import costs across the economy, with businesses passing the costs on to consumers. However, once those price increases are absorbed into the system, they tend to stick, even when input costs moderate.
This means that even with the recent Dangote price cut, Nigerian families are unlikely to see their purchasing power return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon. The price of bread, rice, transport and rent rarely goes back down once it has gone up.
The paradox of oil wealth
Professor Adeola Adenikinju, a former president of the Association of Energy Economists, described the current situation as a “two-edged sword” for Nigeria. Higher global oil prices should, in theory, bring more revenue to government coffers. But for the average citizen, those same high prices translate directly into higher costs for fuel, transport and food.
Professor Wumi Iledare, an energy economist, cautioned that higher oil prices do not automatically translate into economic gains for Nigeria. “Price is only one side of the equation,” he said, adding that Nigeria benefits meaningfully only when favourable prices are matched by increased production volumes, efficient revenue collection and prudent fiscal management.
“The real issue is not whether oil prices are high, but whether Nigeria is producing enough crude oil to take advantage of those prices,” Iledare said.
For the average Nigerian, this paradox offers little comfort. Whether the government earns more or less from crude exports, the family budget feels the same squeeze at the pump and the marketplace.
No subsidy return in sight
Despite the visible strain on household purchasing power, the Federal Government has ruled out a return to fuel subsidies or the reintroduction of price controls.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, during recent engagements with global investors in Paris, said Nigeria would maintain its market-driven approach, stressing that subsidy removal remains irreversible.
“We will not bring back the fuel subsidy because it creates distortions for the economy, and we won’t introduce price control because we believe in the market,” Oyedele said.
For families watching their naira buy less each week, the government’s faith in the market offers little immediate relief.
The road ahead
The CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on May 19 and 20 to retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent. Governor Olayemi Cardoso described the recent inflation rise as “induced by external shocks” and “transitory,” expressing confidence that the economy would return to a disinflation path.
But for the mother buying tomatoes at the local market, for the commuter bargaining with a bus driver, for the small business owner calculating how much stock their capital can now buy, the question is not whether inflation is transitory. It is how to survive until it passes.
According to analysts at Comercio Partners, persistent insecurity, high inflation, weak infrastructure and limited access to credit continue to hold back stronger growth momentum in the Nigerian economy. For as long as these structural problems remain, the purchasing power of the average Nigerian will remain fragile, subject to distant wars, global oil prices and the unpredictable movement of the naira.
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