By Nathaniel Irobi
About 31,400 additional deaths could be recorded in Nigeria over the next six months from extreme heat, according to a new Climate Impact Lab report, as a strengthening El Niño weather pattern threatens to drive temperatures up across the country and the wider Sahel.
The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organisation and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs cautioned that the current El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, heightening the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding in vulnerable communities.
At a joint press conference on Wednesday, WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said the event may peak late in 2026, with its effects lingering well after.
Below are 10 things to know about El Niño and its implications for Nigeria.
- It is a natural climate pattern
El Niño is one phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warm beyond normal, triggering shifts in atmospheric circulation that can reshape temperature, wind and rainfall patterns far from the Pacific. It is not a storm, a heatwave or a disease, but a large scale climate pattern that alters the odds of certain weather conditions worldwide.
- “Super El Niño” is not an official term
The phrase has gained traction online and in the media, but WMO describes the developing event simply as a “very strong El Niño.” Strength is measured using Pacific Ocean temperatures and related atmospheric indicators, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitors it through measurements and probability based outlooks. Terminology and thresholds vary by index and agency.
- It recurs every few years
NOAA says El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months. Its opposite, La Niña, brings cooler than normal Pacific temperatures, while conditions in between are described as neutral. Though natural, its impacts can be severe where communities are already vulnerable or global temperatures are already high.
- This event could last into 2027
In its September 3, 2026, update, WMO put the likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at near 100 per cent, with forecasts suggesting it could reach very strong intensity before peaking late in 2026. This is a forecast, not a guarantee of timing or severity in any single country, and impacts can persist even after the Pacific event weakens.
- It raises the risk of extreme heat
El Niño can shift global temperature patterns and make unusually warm conditions more likely in many regions. WMO’s September outlook pointed to an increased chance of above normal temperatures across almost all land areas from September to November 2026. For people, prolonged heat means greater discomfort and health risks, especially for outdoor workers, the elderly, young children and those without reliable cooling or water. Still, a global outlook is not a forecast of a specific heatwave in every Nigerian state.
- Rainfall disruption varies by location
El Niño does not make every place drier. Some regions may see drought and extended dry spells, while others face heavier rain, flooding or landslides, depending on location, season and interaction with other climate systems. In West Africa and the Sahel, past El Niño events have been linked to below average rainfall during parts of the July to September farming season, but that historical link alone cannot predict exactly what will happen in Nigeria this time.
- Farmers may face tough planting choices
Agriculture is highly exposed to rainfall variability. NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, released on February 10, warned of variable rainfall, prolonged dry spells and generally warmer temperatures, and noted differences in the expected onset, cessation and duration of rains across states. Those forecasts predated the full development of the current El Niño and should be read alongside newer updates. Poorly timed rains could stress crops, disrupt planting and cut yields, while livestock keepers may face pressure on pasture and water.
- Food prices could face pressure, but not automatically
Weather shocks can spill beyond the farm. Lower harvests or transport difficulties can squeeze food supplies, and if several producing regions are hit, households may feel the strain. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation warns that El Niño can threaten food production, rural livelihoods and food security, especially where resources to absorb losses are limited. For Nigeria, however, claims that El Niño will automatically push food prices up would be premature, since prices also respond to transport costs, insecurity, imports, exchange rates, storage and government policy.
- Flooding remains a real concern
Dry spells do not rule out flooding. Intense rain packed into a short period can overwhelm drainage, trigger flash floods and swell rivers. Nigeria’s flood risk should therefore be judged using local hydrological data, not El Niño forecasts alone. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency publishes a 2026 Annual Flood Outlook and an interactive dashboard showing exposure across states and the FCT, which residents can use to check their areas. People should heed official warnings, avoid floodwater and follow evacuation orders.
- Early warnings save lives
El Niño cannot be stopped, but its effects can be softened through timely preparation. NiMet issues seasonal predictions, rainfall information and farm advisories; NIHSA publishes flood and drought outlooks; and the National Emergency Management Agency coordinates preparedness and response. Farmers can use official forecasts to plan planting and brace for dry spells, communities can map evacuation routes and safeguard documents before floods, and agencies can preposition water, emergency services and relief. WMO stresses turning forecasts into early action, especially when an event is expected to be unusually strong. Preparation, it says, must begin before the impacts are visible.
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