Eshioromeh Sebastian in Abuja
The Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Tanimu Yakubu, has formally addressed and dismissed widespread social media claims alleging mismanagement of hundreds of trillions of naira under the current administration.
TbhIn a detailed statement released on Sunday, Yakubu labelled the methodology behind these viral figures “an arithmetic of illusion,” asserting they fundamentally misrepresent Nigeria’s public finance structure.
Yakubu argued that the critiques, often clustered under the term ‘Tinubunomics’, rely on a flawed conflation of distinct fiscal concepts. “This is not an economic analysis. It is an arithmetic illusion”, he stated.
He identified the core error as a failure to differentiate between government revenue, cash flow, financing, and the constitutional distribution of funds between the federal, state, and local tiers.
The Budget Office DG outlined the common pattern behind the inflated calculations. He explained that analysts often incorrectly sum gross tax collections, gross oil revenues, customs receipts, and borrowing as if they were all direct, disposable income for the federal government.
A particular point of contention is the treatment of petrol subsidy savings, which Yakubu clarified are not a tangible cash hoard. “Subsidy reform, for instance, does not conjure discretionary cash. It closes a hole,” he said.
The fiscal benefit, he noted, manifests through reduced budget deficits and lower borrowing needs, not a “sudden pile of spendable ‘savings’.”
Yakubu also addressed misconceptions surrounding the national debt. He emphasised that a significant portion of the recent increase in Nigeria’s total debt stock in naira terms is due to the exchange rate revaluation of existing dollar-denominated obligations, not entirely new borrowing. “Treating this accounting effect as new borrowing is a category error, not a discovery,” he said.
A key pillar of his rebuttal focused on the federation revenue system. He stressed that aggregate national revenue collected by agencies like the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigeria Customs Service is not the federal government’s alone.
“Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend,” Yakubu stated, noting that these funds are statutorily shared with states, local governments, and earmarked for specific national priorities, leaving a smaller portion as federal retained revenue.
The Girector General defended the administration’s economic strategy, describing ‘Tinubunomics’ as a necessary macro-fiscal reset constrained by inherited debts, security spending, and constitutional obligations. He called for more substantive scrutiny of government performance, urging critics to focus on audited federal retained revenue, its allocation to debt service, personnel costs, capital projects, and social transfers, and to evaluate tangible outputs.
“The proper way to interrogate government performance is simple,” Yakubu concluded. “Examine federal retained revenue; separate it clearly from financing; track expenditure, and then assess outputs—roads built, power delivered, rail extended, schools and clinics rehabilitated. Anything else is not subject to scrutiny. It is a theatre.”
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