By Emameh Gabriel
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has made its position clear – no coalition, no merger. And with that single decision, the party has effectively torpedoed Atiku Abubakar’s last realistic shot at the presidency before the race has even begun.
The odds seem to have shifted decisively against Atiku as his 2027 presidential ambitions continues to suffer setback. In a show of defiance, key figure in the main opposition party, are openly abandoning their former standard-bearer, choosing instead to align with President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid. What this implies is that, Atiku might finally be running out of chances. The man who has made a career of presidential runs is watching his 2027 ambitions crumble like a house built on sand. This time, it’s not just voters turning away – his own PDP people won’t back him.
You can almost hear the whispers in secret party meetings: “How many times will we bet on Atiku and lose?” The PDP’s current mess? Much of it traces back to years of putting Atiku’s ambitions first. Now even loyalists think it is time for new blood.
Then there is El-Rufai, stuck in a political no-man’s land. His big move to SDP was supposed to shake things up. Instead, he has become Atiku’s hype man in a party nobody takes seriously. It is sad watching two political heavyweights become irrelevant together.
The writing is not just on the wall, it is in neon. Earlier this week, the PDP Governors’ Forum dealt Atiku Abubakar a brutal blow. They ruled out any coalition or merger before the 2027 elections, effectively slamming the door on his last realistic shot at the presidency. This was also reinforced by Governor Makinde in a recent interview where he insisted that the PDP was not aware of Atiku’s coalition plans.
The coalition was supposed to be Atiku’s masterstroke. For months, he had positioned himself as the obvious leader of a united opposition front, the only figure with the experience to take on Tinubu’s APC. But the governors, many of whom have their own plans, were not having it. Their rejection was not just about the coalition; it was a quiet but unmistakable vote of no confidence in Atiku himself.
The rebellion within Atiku’s own party has reached critical levels, with Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno declaring support for Tinubu and Delta State’s government machinery pledging allegiance to the APC leader. Even more devastatingly, former President Muhammadu Buhari – whose northern political machine Atiku had hoped to court – has vowed loyalty to the party that finally made him president after three failed attempts.
The death knell for Atiku’s coalition hopes came when APC Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje revealed that Rabiu Kwankwaso, a presumed ally, was preparing to join the ruling party. This bombshell announcement has left the opposition in disarray, with even Atiku’s most vocal online supporters falling silent.
With Buhari’s CPC bloc now firmly in the APC fold and PDP governors crossing the aisle, it appears the people have rendered their verdict on 2027 long before the first ballot is cast. It means while Tinubu’s camp plays chess, Atiku’s still playing checkers with missing pieces.
Nigerian politics has that brutal way of retiring politicians who don’t know when to quit. The 2027 campaign hasn’t started, but the obituaries are already being written. And the most painful part? Atiku still thinks this is just another comeback story waiting to happen. Someone should tell him even Nollywood wouldn’t buy this tired script anymore. The once-formidable Atiku now stands isolated, his dream of leading a coalition reduced to a political fantasy as the tide of realpolitik sweeps decisively in the ruling party.
The former vice-president now faces an unenviable choice: to remain within a party that may no longer want him, or to follow El-Rufai into the political wilderness of the SDP. Analysts suggest he will join El-Rufai – this is, after all, a man who has made something of a specialty of returning to the PDP fold after various political wanderings. Yet the calculus has changed. Where once the PDP represented the natural party of government, it now struggles to present itself as a credible alternative. Atiku’s continued presence at its helm risks becoming less an asset than an albatross, a symbol of the party’s inability to renew itself for a new political era.
El-Rufai’s situation is not much better. Remember when the Kaduna controversial strongman stormed out of the APC, shouting about betrayal? That was supposed to be his big power move – either building up the SDP as a real alternative for Atiku, or forcing the APC to beg him to come back.
But here is the problem: nobody’s taking the bait. The SDP might sound good on paper (thanks to its connection to MKO Abiola), but in today’s politics? It is where ambitions go to die. Instead of becoming a kingmaker, El-Rufai’s looking more like a man who has backed the wrong horse – and now can’t find a way off the track.
The SDP lacks not just the nationwide structure required to mount a serious presidential challenge, but even the basic recognition factor among much of the electorate. El-Rufai’s presence may garner headlines, but it is far from clear that it can translate into votes.
Meanwhile, President Tinubu watches these developments from Aso Rock with what he imagines must be considerable satisfaction. The fragmentation of the opposition plays directly into his hands, as does the spectacle of two of its prominent figures floundering in their attempts to mount a credible challenge. The advantages of incumbency in Nigerian politics are not to be underestimated, and Tinubu has shown himself to be a master at consolidating power. With control over federal resources and patronage, and with the opposition in disarray, his path to re-election in 2027 appears increasingly unobstructed.
The coming months will reveal whether either man can adapt to these new realities. Atiku must decide whether to make one last, likely quixotic bid for the presidency or to assume the role of elder statesman – a transition that has eluded him thus far. El-Rufai must determine whether his SDP gamble can be salvaged or whether he needs to cut his losses. What seems increasingly clear is that Nigerian politics is entering a new phase, one which Atiku and El-Rufai might not be as important as they think they are anymore.
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