By Eshiorameh Sebastian, Abuja
A cryptic social media post by Bashir El-Rufai, son of former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai on Thursday, has ignited fresh speculation about a potential seismic shift in Nigeria’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 elections.
The post, though couched in casual terms, may well be the first public signal of backroom negotiations that could disrupt the opposition gambit, perhaps potentially redefine Nigeria’s next presidential race.
The younger El-Rufai’s remarks, seen by analysts as more than mere political banter, suggest his father may be orchestrating a dramatic realignment that could sideline former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in favour of an opposition coalition built around Labour Party’s Peter Obi.
The controversy stems from Bashir’s Thursday post on X (formerly Twitter), where he delivered a surprisingly blunt assessment of Atiku’s 2027 prospects while elevating Obi’s potential. “Atiku is a force to be reckoned with,” he wrote. “He also feels the stars have finally aligned in his favour. And although 2019 is thought to have been his best shot, this may be one of those ‘moment meets the man’.”
However, the real bombshell came as he sketched an alternative scenario: “The sheer force of Obi’s numbers and cult-like followership brings a challenge. His appeal across the youth and this younger generation is one profound aspect of his leverage.” In a striking prediction laced with political sarcasm, he added: “Obi as a flagbearer with a strong northern candidate would defeat [the incumbent] on election day before our dear mother of the nation—Aunty Remi—finishes his breakfast around 12 noon.”
Political observers immediately interpreted the “Aunty Remi” reference as a thinly veiled jab at President Bola Tinubu and First Lady Remi Tinubu, while the broader message hinted at Nasir El-Rufai’s potential kingmaker role in crafting an opposition alliance.
The post gains particular significance given the elder El-Rufai’s recent maneuvers. After leaving the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in March and joining the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in April—where he is currently embroiled in membership disputes—the former governor has been advocating for a southern presidency in 2027 to “balance” Nigeria’s power rotation formula.
This stance aligns curiously with Peter Obi’s own public offer to serve just one term if elected. More intriguing is El-Rufai’s recent rehabilitation of Atiku’s economic legacy—a stark contrast to his 2016 characterization of the former vice president as being haunted by “demons of corruption.”
In February, El-Rufai surprisingly praised Atiku’s tenure: “Nobody gives Alhaji Atiku Abubakar the credit for economic policy making under the Obasanjo administration.
Many of the things we did, we did under his leadership. Maybe because we don’t write about it, and people don’t read history, we tend to forget. We only remember negative things. Maybe it’s part of human nature.”
This pendulum swing in rhetoric suggests either a genuine reassessment or, as many suspect, calculated positioning. With Atiku having contested the presidency six times unsuccessfully, El-Rufai appears to be testing alternative strategies.
His son’s social media post may be trial balloon for a potential Obi-El-Rufai ticket—with the former governor as the “strong northern candidate” who could deliver crucial votes from Nigeria’s dominant northern region.
The seemingly offhand social media remark could serve as the initial visible indicator of covert political dealings that might fundamentally transform Nigeria’s electoral dynamics. Beneath its informal presentation lies what analysts suspect to be evidence of strategic discussions that may not only fracture existing opposition alliances but radically reshape the forthcoming presidential contest.
The political calculus grows more complex with persistent rumours about Obi possibly returning to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), where he served as Atiku’s running mate in 2019. Though Obi has denied such plans—reaffirming his commitment to a new coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC)—the fluidity of Nigeria’s opposition politics makes all scenarios plausible.
What emerges is a picture of Nasir El-Rufai as both pragmatist and disruptor. Having fallen out with the APC establishment after his ministerial nomination was controversially withdrawn in 2023, he now seems determined to shape the opposition’s 2027 strategy—even if it means abandoning old alliances.
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