Ahead of 2027, Obi and Kwankwaso’s NDC coalition faces APC’s strategic attrition targeting their Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements through defections, legal pressure, and internal fragmentation, writes George OparaAhead of the upcoming general elections, the realignment of key presidential rivals Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the coalition African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) is, no doubt, gaining national and global traction, influence and support.
It is a strategic alliance built to consolidate northern and southern opposition protest votes to wrest power from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
But Spear News findings from broader political cycles indicate growing setbacks rooted in the Kwankwasiyya and Obidient movements, the personalized political springboards built over the years but later synergized to the electoral fortunes of the opposition figures cutting across regional blocs.
The two political mass organizations, top insider sources revealed, are presently the target of the APC’s coordinated inter-party attrition war, a situation further described as one where progress is inconsistent—moving forward in some areas while stalling or encountering resistance in others.
Spear News recalls that in the 2023 general polls, the ever-growing members of the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements, rather than swinging their votes in the controversial presidential election, delivered bloc votes independently to Obi and Kwankwaso, who finished third and fourth under the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
As in the 2023 polls, reliable sources believe the Kwankwasiyya and Obidient movements could initiate a domineering challenge to the ruling APC, provided the opposition stays united.
But in retrospect, the ruling APC, taking a direct frontal resolve not to go through the 2023 neck-to-neck battle experiences, adopted a new approach to checkmating the Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano through strategic high-level defections, weakening the movement from within, and secretly unleashing federal and state powers to disrupt and erode its operations.
Further, APC foot soldiers, close political watchers said, have been pulling the strings behind the scenes to foster divisions between key officials of the Kwankwasiyya movement and Rabiu Kwankwaso, their supreme leader, accusing the movement of violence and instigating mass defections from the NNPP to the APC, aimed at dislodging the domineering group from keeping control of its main stronghold ahead of 2027.
Part of the ruling party’s tactics, it was uncovered, includes exploitation of cracks within the Kwankwasiyya movement by reconciling with or absorbing former allies of Kwankwaso, including prominent figures who previously left the organization.
Discrete investigations indicated that the APC is aggressively wooing disaffected NNPP members, notably receiving thousands of members from strategic, high-population areas like Gobirawa Ward in Kano to consolidate its base.
Also, in the northwest, reliable insiders said the APC has solidified its structure with influential stakeholders aiming to weaken the Kwankwasiyya’s political dominance by framing them as an opposition that has lost popularity, asserting the party as the dominant force for stability in Kano.
In one of the recent Kano outings, a Kwankwasiyya ardent follower who pleaded anonymity said the embattled political group is accusing the APC of hiring thugs to disrupt their gatherings and dismantling their support base, showing a move to restrict their public gatherings and influence, which the APC has denied while demanding the arrest of the movement’s leaders.
Similarly, the undeterred APC allegedly has deployed a combination of political, structural, and legal strategies to manage and checkmate the Obidient movement, particularly leading into the 2027 election cycle.
These strategies were said to focus on eroding the movement’s internal cohesion, exploiting structural weaknesses, and capitalizing on the incumbency factor.
In May this year, the APC was said to have started imposing internal factions and splits in the opposition parties. Reliable sources told Spear News that the APC hugely benefited from internal crises within the Labour Party (LP) and the broader Obidient movement, including reports of factions challenging Peter Obi’s leadership that even announced his expulsion from the movement, indicating that key figures and “original founders” of the movement have risen to challenge Peter Obi’s influence.Currently, some factions are said to be operating independently or aligning covertly with the ruling party’s interest.
The ruling party also has brazenly admitted to exploiting the lack of traditional “structure” in the Obidient movement. APC officials with Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State have consistently argued that the movement lacks the physical, “on-the-ground” political machinery necessary to displace an entrenched ruling party, focusing instead on social media popularity. Yet, the APC is said to be co-opting or silencing support bases of the Obidient movement.
Practically, it was alleged that the ongoing APC resolve is to dismantle the movement’s momentum by bringing some proponents into its fold, while others are reportedly facing pressure from government and security agents.
Other hardline stances the APC allegedly stacked against the movement’s activities are said to be undue media censorship and political rhetoric whereby the party’s spokespersons have periodically accused Peter Obi’s political actions of bearing severe consequences, which political analysts said was aimed at weakening Obi’s political standing and discouraging his supporters through exploiting legal lacunae and political realignment.
The Obidient movement, in no small measure, was said to have suffered challenges in maintaining a cohesive and unified platform.
These efforts to whittle the movement’s public visibility and activities, political watchers said, are aimed at transforming the movement from a unified, potent opposition into a disorganized group, thereby ensuring that the APC maintains its dominance in Nigerian politics.
When contacted, however, the ruling party’s insider sources denied responsibility for the woes plaguing the opposition key figures.
The APC National Spokesman, Felix Morka, in his reaction said the incessant party-switching, internal leadership struggle and uncompromising position of Obi and Kwankwaso to clinch the 2027 presidential ticket, unknown to the duo, has occasioned widespread discontent among their political supporters across the nation and, in effect, eroded the cult personality and herd followership they had once enjoyed.
He further alleged that the NDC consensus presidential contender is not truly patriotic and is not protecting the interest of vulnerable Nigerians, contrary to his make-believe philosophy.
As the APC’s alleged strategy to stop at nothing in courting key figures within the opposition and retain national control continues to dominate major discourse in many opposition cycles, many analysts said the 2027 winning dynamics still hang in the balance, throwing up a major challenge for Obi, Kwankwaso and the NDC to structurally maintain a cohesive, united coalition unlike the ADC’s previous alliances that suddenly fell apart due to internal disputes and court cases.
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