The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have commenced a carefully calibrated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) effective May 2025, triggering an immediate 6.8% decline in Brent crude to $69.85 per barrel.
This strategic move follows Thursday’s virtual meeting where eight member nations – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – agreed to begin phasing out their voluntary output restrictions originally implemented to stabilise global markets.
The current production adjustments trace their origins to April 2023 when these key producers instituted voluntary cuts totalling 1.65 million bpd, subsequently augmented by an additional 2.2 million bpd reduction in November 2023. These measures, initially extended through March 2025, will now undergo monthly incremental increases until September 2026, with the cartel emphasising its readiness to “pause or reverse” the schedule should market conditions warrant.
Market analysts attribute the immediate price correction to both the anticipated supply increase and broader geopolitical factors, including recent trade policy developments in Western economies. The alliance has established a rigorous monitoring framework, with participating nations scheduled to convene monthly – including a critical session on 5 May – to assess market dynamics, compliance levels, and compensation mechanisms.
This production strategy represents OPEC+’s latest effort to balance market share considerations with price stability objectives, while maintaining flexibility to respond to evolving global energy demand patterns and inventory fluctuations.
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