By Emameh Gabriel
Yesterday, the much anticipated defection of former Kaduna state Governor, Nasir El -rufai, took place with a tersely crafted announcement shared on social media. El- rufai a founding member of the ruling APC had been at loggerhead with the party’s leadership since his ministerial nomination was withdrawn ostensibly for security concerns. El-Rufai has since become the star attraction of the opposition he once sworn to never to join till his death.
Before his expected defection he had begun hobnobbing with opposition politicians and taking aims at the administration of Bola Tinubu allegedly populated by ‘area boys.’ Strategic as ever, after going round with his consultations, visiting the likes of Atiku Abubakar, Rauf Aregbesola, Tunde Bakara, Shehu Gabam, the chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), he finally decided to pitch his tent with the SDP, for obvious reasons, given the lingering crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), all of which came second, third and fourth place at the 2023 general elections.
But from his new launch pad he has extended his olive branch to politicians across board who are disenchanted with the course of things and believe Nigeria should be heading in a different direction.
El-rufai is undoubtedly a man of exceptional political dexterity and his not new such process engineering as is evident in his pre – 2015 participations that produced the merger that became the APC.
But while he has been highly visible in the media space seeking to position himself as a champion of the north and the downtrodden, he is still viewed with suspicion by those who see him as a man consumed by nothing but personal ambitions that has sustained him at the corridors of power since Nigeria’s return to democracy.
Detente with Atiku
Walking away from a house you helped built is no small feat. it is enough to turn even a man of El-Rufai’s fiery zeal into a political orphan or send him spiralling into an early retirement from the political arena. But not Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, whose political cunning and strategic manoeuvres are the stuff of legend. Like a cat with nine lives, he has effortlessly found refuge, appeasement, and solace in an opposition that is as fractured as a shattered mirror and as directionless as a ship without a captain. El-Rufai has to survive somewhere he is needed, whether for good or had, he has to stay relevant for the time being.
In a move that could only be described as political alchemy, El-Rufai has swiftly mended fences with his one-time mentor turned arch-rival, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. This is the same Atiku whom El-Rufai once accused of being haunted by the ‘demon of corruption’ in his 2013 book, ‘The Accidental Public Servant, alleging that the former VP had pressured him to bend the rules for vested interests. Their feud, which simmered and boiled over even during their days in the APC merger, seemed destined to be eternal. Yet, like a Shakespearean drama, the tides have turned.
Speaking recently during a condolence visit to the family of the late elder statesman and Niger Delta leader, Chief Edwin Clark, who passed away on February 17, El-Rufai was quoted as singing Atiku’s praises, commending him for spearheading economic reforms during the Obasanjo administration. It was a moment so rich in irony that it could have been plucked straight from a satirical play. The man who once painted Atiku as a villain now stands shoulder-to-shoulder with him, as if their past acrimony had been nothing more than a fleeting squall in a teacup.
The duo have been seen together of lately ever since Atiku’s media aide, Otunba Segun Showunmi joined El-Rufai and former chief security officer to late General Sani Abacha, Major Hamza Al- Mustapha on a visit to the national chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Shehu Gabam in Abuja in January this year.
Last month at a public forum, where both of them among others sat to discuss the state of democracy in Nigeria after comparing the present situation with the dark days of military rule, while calling on the opposition to unite, El- rufai turned to his new friend and said: “So, your excellency, we need your experience and skills.”
This new found romance even culminated into El- rufai visiting the former Vice president a day before officially announcing his defection from the APC.
Who gets what?
Like the 2014 merger that was a grand coalition of political parties including the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), a faction of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and the new PDP, the impending merger or eventual mega party is also expected to be a coalition of opposition parties, which if successful and to be effective must necessarily include the leading opposition parties alongside other smaller parties such as the PDP or a faction of it, the Labour Party, the NNPP or a faction of it, the rebranded Social Democratic Party ( SDP) and any other party willing to join the alleged coalition of national salvation. The visible leaders or key brokers that would midwife the coalition talkers would include the likes of Nasir El-rufai, former vice president Atiku Abubakar, former governor Rotimi Amaechi, former governor Rauf Aregbesola, Labour party presidential Peter Obi, Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso among others. What would matter most in this new merger or coalition talks would be who gets what and how.
Political Chessboard in Motion
From all indication, the opposition is once again shuffling its pieces on the board. Like the 2013/2014 merger talks that saw the CPC produce the president and the ACN the vice president, leaving the rest of the coalition partners to scramble for the crumbs, history seems poised to repeat itself, or at least rhyme.
Saliu Lukman, a former deputy national chairman (North) of the APC, has thrown a spanner into the works, calling out Nasir El-Rufai for jumping the gun. On Monday, Lukman urged key opposition figures to shelve their presidential aspirations and focus on building a formidable party to challenge the APC. In a tone laced with anger and surprise, he warned that the same culture of imposition that led to the PDP’s downfall in 2015 has now infected the APC, turning it into a shadow of its former self.
To beat President Bola Tinubu in this high-stakes political game is akin to trying to snatch a cub from the care of a lioness, a feat that requires not just courage but a miracle of biblical proportions. Even Nasir El-Rufai, a political tactician with the cunning of a fox, knows this all too well. Those now gathering like vultures circling a carcass in the middle of a desert may dream of feasting, but they underestimate the lioness guarding her territory.
El-Rufai himself has attested to Tinubu’s political prowess. In a recent interview with Arise TV, he acknowledged that Tinubu was the best bet in the South, a statement that speaks volumes about the President’s entrenched strength and strategic acumen. For those plotting to wrest power from him, it is not enough to have the wisdom of Solomon; they would need a miracle never before seen in Nigeria’s political history.
The opposition, though buzzing with activity, resembles a flock of birds pecking at crumbs. Tinubu’s political dexterity is a force of nature, a storm that has weathered countless battles and emerged unscathed. His ability to outmanoeuvre rivals is legendary, a skill honed over decades in the trenches of Nigerian politics.
The emergent alliance, much like the last mega coalition, is a patchwork of different tendencies. Whispers of a Peter Obi/Nasir El-Rufai ticket are swirling in the political air, gaining traction after Bashir El-Rufai, Nasir’s son, took to X (formerly Twitter) to sing Obi’s praises. “Peter Obi is surprisingly not a bad person after all,” he posted. “My views on him have changed recently. My mind was poisoned by my former party members. Such a statement, dripping with irony, is a testament to the shifting sands of political loyalty.
Both El-Rufai and Peter Obi, former protégés of Atiku Abubakar, now find themselves at a crossroads. For Atiku, the idea of jettisoning his lifelong ambition to play the role of godfather in the next dispensation is akin to asking a leopard to change its spots. The former vice president, a veteran of Nigeria’s political trenches, is unlikely to step aside without a fight.
As expected, these talks and realignments are set to continue for the foreseeable future, especially with the general election still two years away. But one thing is clear: the opposition is beginning to crystallise, like a storm gathering on the horizon. Nasir El-Rufai, is unlikely to lose sight of the bigger picture. Yet, he must contend with President Tinubu’s political dexterity, a skill so sharp that has made him a marvel in Nigeria’s political history.
Whether the opposition can rise above personal ambitions and build a coalition strong enough to challenge the APC remains to be seen. For now, the political chessboard is in motion, and the players are making their moves.
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